TASHKENT, Uzbekistan, March 11. International
financial institutions (IFIs) forecast that Uzbekistan's real GDP
growth will remain robust in 2026, with projections ranging from
6.0% to 6.7%, reflecting sustained domestic demand, active
investment activity, and ongoing structural reforms, Trend reports via the
IFIs.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Uzbekistan’s
economy is expected to grow by 6.0% in 2026, slightly above its
earlier projection of 5.8%. The IMF maintains that tight monetary
policy and structural adjustments will help preserve macroeconomic
stability amid inflationary pressures linked to administered energy
price increases. At the same time, the Fund highlights fiscal
challenges, including weaker-than-expected VAT revenues and tax
compliance gaps, which could weigh on budget performance.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)
presents a more optimistic outlook, projecting 6.5% growth in 2026,
with the forecast revised upward by 0.5 percentage points compared
to its previous estimate. The EBRD attributes the upgrade to
stronger-than-anticipated investment dynamics and continued
implementation of structural reforms. However, the bank cautions
that external risks remain, particularly volatility in global
commodity prices and potential softening of external demand.
Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts GDP growth
of 6.7% in 2026, maintaining its earlier projection. The ADB notes
that sustained public capital expenditure, steady performance in
industry, agriculture, and services, and ongoing infrastructure
modernization will underpin economic expansion. Inflation is
projected to ease to around 7.0% in 2026, supported by prudent
monetary policy and more stable commodity prices.
Overall, while projections differ slightly, all three
institutions converge on the assessment that Uzbekistan will
sustain robust growth above 6% in 2026. The variation in forecasts
reflects differing assumptions regarding inflation dynamics, fiscal
adjustments, external demand conditions, and the pace of structural
reforms. The consensus view suggests that domestic consumption and
investment will remain the primary growth drivers, while
macroeconomic management and reform implementation will be critical
to maintaining stability and mitigating external
vulnerabilities.
