Baku-Belgrade strategic partnership redefines regional future - analyst

BAKU, Azerbaijan, February 17. Baku-Belgrade
cooperation is shaping not only the future of the two countries but
also the broader region, political analyst Azer Garayev told
Trend.

"The official visit of President Ilham Aliyev to Serbia on
February 15, 2026, marked the beginning of a qualitatively new
stage in Azerbaijan–Serbia relations. High-level meetings in
Belgrade with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, the first session
of the Strategic Partnership Council, and the signing of numerous
intergovernmental documents demonstrated that Baku and Belgrade
have moved beyond traditional diplomatic cooperation toward a
long-term strategic partnership," he said.

According to Garayev, the visit is significant not only in terms
of intensifying bilateral relations but also against the backdrop
of Europe’s evolving energy, security, and economic architecture.
Following the Russia-Ukraine war, Europe’s energy security concept
has undergone fundamental changes, turning reliable energy
exporters such as Azerbaijan and key transit and consumer countries
in the Balkans, such as Serbia, into strategic partners.

Garayev emphasized that personal relations between President
Ilham Aliyev and President Aleksandar Vučić have played a decisive
role in elevating bilateral ties to their current level. Vučić
stated, 'I would like to express my great respect to the people of
Azerbaijan and to you personally, dear Mr. President. I would also
like to say to the people of Serbia and, of course, to the people
of Azerbaijan that every time I talk to you, I learn a lot, I
manage to observe many things from the different perspective of an
experienced statesman and a true leader. Therefore, I would like to
thank you very much for always sharing your knowledge with me and
for establishing such relations with us, from which my country, the
country I lead, has a lot to learn,' which, according to the
analyst, shows that their relationship goes beyond protocol.

He noted that President Ilham Aliyev’s high assessment of
Vučić’s activities also demonstrates deep political respect between
the two leaders. This trust enables the swift adoption of strategic
decisions and ensures their implementation through practical
mechanisms.

"The first session of the Strategic Partnership Council in
Belgrade showed that Azerbaijan-Serbia relations have taken on a
systematic rather than episodic character. This format is applied
by Azerbaijan only with selected countries, and Serbia’s inclusion
highlights the special importance attached to the Balkan
region.

The Council’s agenda covered energy, industry, investment,
transport, agriculture, culture, sports, media, and healthcare,
reflecting the multifaceted nature of cooperation. This model goes
beyond the traditional “energy contract” format and signals a
transition toward real economic integration," he added.

Garayev stressed that energy is the main driving force of
Azerbaijan-Serbia relations.

“Azerbaijan already exports gas to Serbia, significantly
strengthening Baku’s position in the Balkan energy balance.
However, the new agreements reached in Belgrade elevate this
cooperation to a qualitatively deeper level. The joint construction
of a 500-megawatt gas-fired power plant in Serbia represents not
merely an energy facility but a project of regional energy security
importance. The plant will reduce Serbia’s reliance on imports
while enabling Azerbaijan to move further up the European energy
value chain, transitioning from a raw material supplier to a
producer of finished energy products. As President Ilham Aliyev
noted, Azerbaijan’s current export potential stands at 2 gigawatts,
with an additional 8 gigawatts of capacity planned by 2032. This
trajectory underscores Azerbaijan’s emergence as one of the key
actors in Europe’s green and secure energy landscape,” the analyst
said.

The analyst emphasized that Serbia’s geographical position makes
it an ideal energy transit hub in the Balkans. Azerbaijani gas, and
in the future, Azerbaijani-generated electricity, can access
Central and Southern European markets via Serbia, giving Baku’s
role in European energy security a more structured and long-term
dimension.

“For Serbia, this partnership represents energy sovereignty. By
expanding its domestic electricity generation capacity, Belgrade
will be able to reliably meet the growing demands of its industry,
as well as future data centers and the digital economy. The signed
economic agreements demonstrate that Azerbaijan now views Serbia
not only as a political partner but also as a strategic investment
platform. Planned initiatives in gas turbine power generation,
energy, agriculture, and industry are expected to stimulate
reciprocal capital flows. In turn, Serbia can serve as Azerbaijan’s
economic gateway to the European Union market, opening new export
and production opportunities, particularly for the non-oil
sector.

The launch of direct Baku-Belgrade flights will provide strong
momentum to humanitarian and cultural ties alongside economic
cooperation. Tourism, student exchanges, business forums, and
exhibitions will further deepen bilateral engagement. These
connections will increase direct interaction between the
Azerbaijani and Serbian peoples, reinforcing the social foundations
of their political partnership. Azerbaijan and Serbia consistently
support each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty on
international platforms, an important political assurance for the
two countries facing complex security challenges in their
respective regions. This mutual support, combined with expanding
energy and economic cooperation, creates a genuine strategic
alliance,” he said.

Garayev noted that President Ilham Aliyev’s visit to Serbia
demonstrated that relations between Baku and Belgrade have moved
beyond a tactical framework and now possess a clearly strategic
character.

“This partnership, built on energy, investment, transport, and
political coordination, is forming a new axis of power and
cooperation between the South Caucasus and the Balkans. This axis
shapes not only the future development trajectory of the two
countries, but also that of the wider region,” the expert
added.