Iran could be forced to significantly reduce oil production within about 16 days if a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz prevents its crude exports, according to the Financial Times.
The newspaper, citing satellite data from Kayrros, reported that Iran’s crude storage tanks are currently just over 51% full.
At present export levels of around 1.8 million barrels per day, the remaining capacity would last roughly 16 days.
However, analysts note that Iran is unlikely to wait until storage facilities reach full capacity, given its long experience operating under sanctions and adjusting production levels accordingly.
Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at consultancy Energy Aspects, said that recent tanker traffic into the Persian Gulf suggests Iran may be able to store additional oil aboard vessels awaiting loading at its terminals.
Meanwhile, Miad Maleki, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, estimated that each day of the blockade costs Iran about $435 million.
Iranian analyst Saeed Laylaz suggested the blockade could shift the conflict toward the Red Sea, as Saudi Arabia redirects significant oil exports there, potentially increasing pressure on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
By Bakhtiyar Abbasov
