BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 12. The war in the
Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the
history of the global oil market, says the report of the
International Energy Agency (IEA), Trend reports.


According to the report, before the war, around 20 million
barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil and petroleum products flowed
through the Strait of Hormuz, but now that flow has nearly come to
a halt.


The report noted that with limited capacity available to bypass
the crucial waterway and storage filling up, Gulf countries have
cut total oil production by at least 10 mb/d.


The report highlighted that without a swift reestablishment of
shipping activities, anticipated supply losses are likely to
escalate.


The IEA's projections indicate a significant downturn in global
oil supply, expected to decrease by eight mb/d this March.


"Curtailments in the Middle East will be partly offset by higher
output from non-OPEC+ producers, Kazakhstan and Russia, following
disruptions at the start of the year. While the extent of losses
will depend on the duration of the conflict and disruptions to
flows, we estimate the global oil supply to rise by 1.1 mb/d in
2026 on average, with non-OPEC+ producers accounting for the entire
increase.







The conflict is also having a significant impact on global
product markets, with export flows through the Strait at a near
standstill. Gulf producers exported 3.3 mb/d of refined products
and 1.5 mb/d of LPG in 2025. More than 3 mb/d of refining capacity
in the region has already shut down due to attacks and a lack of
viable export outlets. Runs elsewhere will be increasingly limited
due to feedstock availability," the report said.


At the same time, the report noted that IEA member countries
unanimously agreed on March 11 to make 400 mb of oil from their
emergency reserves available to the market to address disruptions
stemming from the war in the Middle East.


"Global observed oil stocks were 8,210 billion in January, their
highest level since February 2021. The OECD accounted for 50%,
Chinese crude stocks 15%, and oil on water 25%, with the remainder
in other non-OECD countries," added the report.


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