BAKU, Azerbaijan, Feb.21. Initial normalization
steps between Azerbaijan and Armenia have led to improvements in
regional connectivity, Trend reports via the S&P Global
Ratings.


“Progress in negotiations with Azerbaijan could reduce near-term
security risks, although the prospect of a durable peace agreement
still depends on signing a binding agreement and its effective
implementation,” reads the report.


On Feb. 20, 2026, S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on
Armenia to positive from stable.


“The revision of the outlook to positive reflects our view that
there is the potential for improvement in regional geopolitical and
security dynamics, specifically further progress toward normalizing
diplomatic and trade relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” the
report says.


S&P Global Ratings analysts note that negotiations between
the two countries have focused on a comprehensive peace framework
centered on mutual recognition of sovereignty and territorial
integrity, border delimitation, and the establishment of diplomatic
relations.


“The August 2025 U.S.-brokered agreement marked an important
political milestone, signaling commitment at the leadership level
and helping to stabilize the security environment. Initial
normalization steps have led to modest improvements in regional
connectivity and trade, alongside an ongoing Armenia-Türkiye
normalization process aimed at reopening borders and establishing
diplomatic relations.


Our base-line expectation is for broad political continuity
after the June elections, with the new government continuing to
focus on reaching a full peace agreement with Azerbaijan,” says
S&P.


On August 8, 2025, in Washington, President of the Republic of
Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, US President Donald Trump, and Armenian
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a joint declaration. One of
the points of the document provides for the launch of the “Trump
Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) to unblock
regional communications.


During the meeting, Foreign Minister of the Republic of
Azerbaijan Jeyhun Bayramov and Foreign Minister of the Republic of
Armenia Ararat Mirzoyan initialed the draft “Agreement on the
Establishment of Peace and Interstate Relations between the
Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia” and signed a
joint appeal to the current OSCE Chairperson-in-Office to close the
OSCE Minsk Group process.


On October 21, 2025, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan
Ilham Aliyev, in a joint press statement with President of
Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, said that Azerbaijan has lifted
all restrictions on cargo transit to Armenia that had existed since
the time of occupation, and the first such transit cargo was a
shipment of Kazakh grain to Armenia.


On December 18, 2025, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan
(SOCAR) sent 1,220 tons of RON95 motor fuel to Armenia.


On January 9, 2026, a total of 2,698 tons of cargo (48 railcars)
was sent to Armenia, including 1,742 tons of RON95 gasoline and 956
tons of diesel fuel.


On January 11, a train consisting of 18 railcars loaded with 979
tons of RON92 motor gasoline was sent to the country.