BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 9. Azerbaijan's current
account surplus could reach $5.5 billion by the end of the year,
Aliyar Mammadyarov. First Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of
the Republic of Azerbaijan said, Trend's correspondent reports from the event.


Mammadyarov made the statement at the event titled “Unlocking
Tourism's Potential to Drive Economic Growth and
Diversification.”


According to him, despite all these challenges, Azerbaijan's
external position remains favorable.


''The first-quarter current account surplus was $1.7 billion
dollars, or 9.5% of GDP. We expect around 5.5 billion dollars in
2026. Strategic foreign exchange reserves have reached 85.8 billion
dollars. They provide a robust buffer against external shocks and
further support the manat's stability,'' he noted.


In addition, Mammadyarov emphasized that, in terms of prices,
annual inflation was 5.6 % in May, within our target band of 4%
plus or minus 2 %. Inflation is mainly driven by external
supply-side factors. Our May forecast puts inflation at 5.9 % in
2026 and 4.5 % in 2027.


''The financial sector remains sound and stable. Capital
adequacy stands at 17%, liquidity coverage at 155%. These levels
substantially exceed the required norms. Non-performing loans stood
at just 2.9%. Dollarization has fallen markedly to 13.7% on loans
and 27% on resident deposits,'' he stressed.


Mamamadyarov further noted, that, at this stage, three trends
toward rebalancing are evident in Azerbaijan’s economy.







''First, the non-oil sector is playing an
ever-larger role in driving growth, gradually reshaping the
structure of the economy. Second, the sources of growth are
shifting from non-tradable sectors, such as construction, toward
tradables, such as transportation and logistics, information
technology and non-oil industry. Third, growth is becoming less
dependent on public spending and increasingly driven by private
activity,'' he emphasized.


Furthermore, the official stated that: Our outlook remains
positive, according to the Central Bank's May forecast, total GDP
is projected to grow by 1.1% this year and by 3.2% in 2027, with
non-oil growth of 3.2 and 4.7 percent, respectively.


''Today's report underscores that the next stage of development
will depend increasingly on diversification. Tourism stands out
with significant untapped potential. On the other hand,
Azerbaijan’s unique location, rich cultural heritage, diverse
natural landscapes and improving infrastructure provide strong
foundations for a competitive, sustainable tourism industry.


Supported by improved air connectivity, visa facilitation and
targeted destination promotion, tourism earnings have grown by an
average of 38% annually over the last three years. In the first
quarter of 2026, tourism service exports accounted for 21% of total
non-oil service exports.


It is important to note that the report not only identifies
emerging opportunities but also offers practical recommendations
which are improving transport and information connectivity,
investing in the development of regional tourism destinations,
fostering greater private sector participation and developing human
capital. These proposals are closely aligned with our long-term
priorities and will form the basis for future policy discussions in
this area.'' he concluded.