BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 26. Higher oil and gas
prices are set to weigh on energy-importing nations while boosting
revenues for exporters such as Azerbaijan, the European Bank for
Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said in its latest regional
economic update, Trend reports.


Azerbaijan exported 3.6 million tons of crude oil and bituminous
petroleum products from January through February 2026, generating
$1.7 billion in revenue, according to the data from the State
Customs Committee.


Energy trade deficits, calculated at pre-conflict prices, are
particularly large for Moldova, Jordan, Tunisia, Senegal, North
Macedonia, Morocco, and Egypt, ranging from 5 to 11 percent of GDP.
Some of these economies—including Lebanon, Egypt, Senegal, and
Morocco—also have high oil intensity, meaning they consume more
barrels of oil per unit of GDP.


In contrast, oil and gas trade surpluses are projected at 11 to
39 percent of GDP for exporters including Azerbaijan, Iraq,
Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and Nigeria, although Iraq is currently
unable to fully export oil. “Commodity exports are much more
concentrated than commodity imports, and the fortunes of exporting
economies are closely correlated with the prices of the commodities
they export,” the report said. “For importers, correlations between
economic performance and energy prices are typically weaker.”







A sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil
prices even higher. “In the short term, the demand for oil is
inelastic. The market could clear at price levels of US$180 per
barrel, with many analysts predicting spikes in the range of
US$150–200 per barrel,” the report said. Over the longer term,
elevated prices are expected to reduce demand as industrial users
adopt energy-efficient solutions and consumers cut back on
discretionary spending, with the market potentially stabilizing
around US$100 per barrel even if Gulf supply remains severely
curtailed.


The EBRD also cautioned that a sustained oil price of US$100 per
barrel could suppress global growth by at least 0.4 percentage
points and push global inflation up by more than 1.5 percentage
points, factoring in disruptions to supply chains for chemicals and
metals.