TASHKENT, Uzbekistan, March 23. The Dutch
banking conglomerate ING expects the Uzbek soum to remain broadly
stable in the near term, although external factors may limit its
strengthening potential, Trend reports via ING.
According to information, the exchange rate environment is no
longer providing the same disinflationary support as in 2025. After
appreciating by around 7% last year, the Uzbek soum has remained
largely flat since early March, reducing the positive impact of the
currency on inflation dynamics.
Analysts note that the recent correction in global gold prices
has also affected the outlook. Gold prices declined by about 5%
after rising by 65% in 2025 and a further 21% in January-February
2026.
ING said Uzbekistan may continue to support the currency through
gold exports, as the country could increase sales from around 85
metric tons in 2025 toward its estimated capacity of 90-100 metric
tons per year.
At the same time, the bank warns that limited growth in gold
prices and the country’s persistent current account and fiscal
deficits may constrain the long-term appreciation potential of the
Uzbek soum.
According to ING, rising global food and energy prices, along
with strong domestic demand, continue to pose inflation risks,
which may require Uzbekistan to maintain relatively tight monetary
conditions for longer than previously expected.
