BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 7. A series of
recent decisions by international credit rating agencies concerning
Kazakhstan’s largest companies provides a further indication of how
global investors assess the country’s economic environment. The
upgrade of Kazakhstan’s sovereign credit rating, followed by
revised assessments of major enterprises and the continued strong
confidence in financial institutions, reflects not only the
resilience of individual organizations but also broader
developments in the country’s economic environment, which has
remained one of the key priorities of the policy agenda of
President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
In recent weeks, international rating agencies have consistently
upgraded or affirmed the credit ratings of major Kazakh companies.
S&P Global Ratings upgraded the ratings of KazMunayGas (KMG),
Tengizchevroil (TCO), and several financial institutions following
its revision of Kazakhstan’s sovereign rating. Fitch Ratings
affirmed the strong credit profile of the national atomic company
Kazatomprom, while Moody’s maintained the ratings of the country’s
key development institutions.
This trend followed S&P Global Ratings’ decision on August
21, 2026, to upgrade Kazakhstan’s long-term sovereign rating from
“BBB-” to “BBB” with a stable outlook. According to the agency, the
decision was supported by the resilience of Kazakhstan’s economy,
substantial foreign exchange reserves, and expectations of a
further reduction in the non-oil deficit.
Against this backdrop, the improvement in the credit ratings of
individual companies can be viewed as part of a broader process
aimed at strengthening Kazakhstan’s position as a reliable borrower
and an attractive destination for investment.
As noted by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) in its
macroeconomic outlook, Kazakhstan’s sovereign rating upgrade came
amid challenging conditions in global financial markets, where many
countries are facing rising debt burdens and higher borrowing
costs.
At the same time, Kazakhstan continues to maintain a more
resilient position due to its moderate public debt level,
significant reserves, and sustained economic growth. According to
the EDB, Kazakhstan’s average government debt level in 2023–2025
stood at 24% of GDP. For comparison, the average figure among
several “A” category countries - including Malaysia, Croatia,
Chile, and Poland - was 55.9% of GDP. “Since Kazakhstan’s debt
level is lower than that of several ‘A’-rated countries, the size
of its debt itself is not a constraint for further rating upgrades.
Sustained and high economic growth, the availability of liquid
reserves, and a moderate level of liabilities provide the country
with a competitive advantage,” the EDB said in its report.
According to the bank’s assessment, another factor supporting
Kazakhstan’s resilience is the country’s substantial external
assets. As of the end of July 2026, Kazakhstan’s gross
international reserves amounted to 20.3% of GDP, covering 9.3
months of imports, while the assets of the National Fund stood at
20.8% of GDP.
These indicators have been among the reasons why international
investors continue to demonstrate strong interest in Kazakh assets.
In 2024, Kazakhstan issued 10-year Eurobonds worth $1.5 billion
with a yield of 4.7%. Demand for the offering nearly quadrupled the
amount issued, reaching $6 billion. In 2025, another five-year
issue, also worth $1.5 billion, attracted orders exceeding $4.4
billion.
This dynamic reflects Kazakhstan’s broader economic strategy in
recent years, aimed at strengthening resilience, developing
infrastructure, attracting investment, and improving the quality of
public governance.
Under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, improving institutional
efficiency and enhancing the investment climate have become key
elements of Kazakhstan’s economic policy. Back in 2022, he
highlighted the need to improve the effectiveness of state
financial institutions, including the Development Bank of
Kazakhstan, and to strengthen their role in supporting the real
sector of the economy.
Speaking at a meeting of the Council of Foreign Investors on
July 2, 2026, President Tokayev said: “Despite unfavorable external
conditions, Kazakhstan’s economy grew by 6.5% last year. The
country’s GDP exceeded $300 billion. Kazakhstan intends to maintain
its leadership position in Central Asia in terms of attracted
investment. The accumulated volume of net foreign direct investment
exceeded $150 billion, accounting for almost 70% of all investment
in the region. The foundation of these economic achievements is our
political stability. Following a historic nationwide referendum, we
adopted a new Constitution of the Republic, which has already
received recognition as a people’s Constitution. It is symbolic
that our Basic Law entered into force literally on the eve of our
meeting. The updated constitutional provisions ensure the highest
possible level of protection for investors’ rights.”
Work on improving financial market regulation continued in
August 2026. Tokayev signed the Law “On Credit Rating Activities,”
which establishes requirements for transparency of rating
procedures, the quality of assessment methodologies, prevention of
conflicts of interest, and the operations of credit rating
agencies.
The creation of such an institutional framework is particularly
important for an economy seeking to further improve its credit
quality. For international investors, financial indicators of
companies are only one factor; equally important is the
transparency of the rules governing the market.
One of the most visible outcomes of the improving economic
environment has been the upgrade of ratings assigned to
Kazakhstan’s largest industrial companies. S&P Global Ratings
upgraded KazMunayGas’ long-term rating from “BBB-” to “BBB.” The
agency also improved the company’s standalone credit profile,
highlighting its strong position in the industry and conservative
financial policy. According to S&P, KMG will be able to
maintain funds from operations-to-debt above 45% on average despite
an expected increase in capital expenditures. The company remains
one of the key pillars of Kazakhstan’s energy sector, and its
financial resilience contributes to the broader perception of the
country’s oil and gas industry.
Another example is Tengizchevroil. S&P upgraded the
company’s rating to “BBB,” citing its large-scale production,
strong cost position, and low leverage. TCO’s operational
performance further underscores its importance for Kazakhstan’s
economy. In 2025, the company produced approximately 39 million
tonnes of oil. Its strong operational profile and financial
stability became among the factors behind the improved credit
assessment.
Kazakhstan’s nuclear industry also plays an important role in
the country’s evolving economic positioning. Fitch Ratings affirmed
Kazatomprom’s long-term rating at “BBB” with a stable outlook. The
agency noted that the company remains the world’s largest uranium
producer, accounting for around 20% of global primary uranium
production in 2025. Fitch expects Kazatomprom’s gross
debt-to-EBITDA ratio to remain below 1.0x during the 2026–2029
period.
Thus, international ratings reflect not only the resilience of
Kazakhstan’s traditional export sectors but also the country’s
ability to maintain competitive positions in strategic industries
of the global economy. At the same time, stronger confidence from
international agencies is extending to Kazakhstan’s financial
sector. S&P upgraded Bank CenterCredit’s standalone credit
profile from “bb” to “bb+”, citing improvements in the bank’s
capitalization. According to the agency’s forecast, the bank’s
risk-adjusted capital ratio is expected to rise to 10.2–10.7% over
the next 18–24 months, compared with 9.2% in 2025.
For Halyk Bank, the agency affirmed the “BBB-/A-3” rating and
revised the outlook on its long-term rating to positive. The bank
remains the largest financial institution in Central Asia,
accounting for approximately 30% of Kazakhstan’s loan and deposit
markets. Positive assessments also extend to Kazakhstan’s
development institutions. Moody’s affirmed the rating of Baiterek
Holding at “Baa1,” emphasizing its role as a government financial
instrument and its contribution to the development of the
non-resource sector.
International financial institutions are also continuing to
expand cooperation with Kazakhstan. In April 2026, President
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev discussed prospects for investment
cooperation with Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) Chairman Nikolai
Podguzov. During the implementation period of the bank’s 2022–2026
strategy, the EDB’s total investment volume reached $9.2 billion,
of which $5.2 billion was directed to Kazakhstan.
The bank’s financing supported key areas of the economy:
approximately $2.1 billion went to industry, $1 billion to the
energy sector, $1 billion to transport infrastructure, and $1.1
billion to the financial sector. In July 2026, Tokayev also held a
meeting with European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
(EBRD) President Odile Renaud-Basso. According to her, the EBRD’s
investments in Kazakhstan could reach €1.3 billion this year, which
would be the highest annual figure in the bank’s entire history of
operations in the country.
All these factors form a broader picture: the upgrading of
Kazakhstan’s companies’ ratings is not an isolated event but rather
a reflection of gradual changes in the country’s economic
environment. International agencies evaluate not only the financial
condition of individual enterprises but also the resilience of the
economy, the quality of institutions, and the government’s ability
to support long-term growth.
For Kazakhstan, achieving a sovereign rating of “BBB” and
improved assessments for leading companies represent another step
toward higher levels of credit quality. At the same time, future
progress will depend on continued structural reforms, economic
diversification, and maintaining the confidence of international
investors.
