BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 25. Recent U.S.
engagement in Venezuela’s oil sector could support future
production growth and benefit American companies if it leads to
policy changes encouraging foreign investment, Fitch Ratings said,
Trend
reports.


The agency noted that meaningful gains would likely require
substantial investment and time, and that incentives remain limited
in a global market currently oversupplied with crude.


On January 3, US President Donald Trump announced that
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife had been detained
and taken out of the country. He noted that the US had successfully
carried out a large-scale operation against Venezuela and its
leader, President Nicolas Maduro.


"This operation was carried out in conjunction with US law
enforcement agencies," Trump noted.


Later on, Trump said during a press conference that the U.S. oil
companies will spend billions of dollars to fix the oil
infrastructure in Venezuela.


"As everyone knows, the oil business in Venezuela has been a
bust, a total bust for a long period of time. They were pumping
almost nothing by comparison to what they could have been pumping
and what could have taken place. We're going to have our very large
United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go
in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken oil
infrastructure, and start making money for the country," he
noted.


Oil prices saw a choppy session on January 5 as markets digested
the impact of the developments in Venezuela.







ICE Brent crude briefly dipped below $60 per barrel during
trading but settled 1.66% higher at $61.76/bbl. European natural
gas prices came under further pressure, with TTF futures sliding
more than 5.5% on the day.


While a rapid rise in Venezuelan crude exports could put
pressure on Canadian oil prices, Fitch said any impact on credit
ratings would likely be limited due to the financial resilience of
Canadian producers. U.S. refiners, particularly those with complex
facilities able to process heavy crude, could benefit from access
to Venezuela’s reserves and opportunities to invest in
infrastructure rehabilitation.


Fitch warned that Venezuela’s oil sector would need significant
rebuilding before production could approach previous peaks of more
than three million barrels per day, with any substantial increase
taking years to materialize. A broadly oversupplied market and
expected price declines in 2026 further limit incentives for major
investment.


In North America, exploration and production companies are
expected to continue focusing on consolidation and cost control,
with potential for additional capital expenditure cuts if prices
weaken further.


For Canadian producers, a rebound in Venezuelan heavy crude
could pose a modest competitive challenge, but infrastructure
expansions, including the Trans Mountain pipeline extension, have
diversified export markets. Fitch-rated Canadian companies —
Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor Energy, and Cenovus Energy —
maintain strong credit profiles due to reserve life and
conservative financial policies, despite higher operating costs for
oil sands relative to shale.