BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 9. The discussion
surrounding the development of renewable energy sources in
Turkmenistan is increasingly shaped by international climate
commitments, regional energy trends, and the country’s domestic
economic structure. Unlike several neighboring states, Turkmenistan
doesn’t see “green” energy as a horse to ride in place of its
hydrocarbon-based model, but rather as a feather in its cap aimed
at boosting efficiency, diversifying the energy mix, and meeting
international climate requirements.
With regard to its engagement in the international climate
agenda, Turkmenistan has taken concrete steps since gaining
independence. The country ratified the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change in 1995, the Kyoto Protocol in 1998,
and the Paris Agreement in 2016, thereby assuming commitments to
limit the global temperature increase to well below 2°C while
pursuing efforts to achieve the 1.5°C threshold.
In its updated Nationally Determined Contribution submitted in
January 2023, Turkmenistan declared an unconditional reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2030 compared to 2010 levels
under a business-as-usual scenario. In 2010, the country’s total
emissions amounted to approximately 66.4 million tons of CO₂
equivalent, with the energy sector accounting for around 85% of
total emissions. The document covers energy, transport, industry,
agriculture, and waste management, placing emphasis on decoupling
economic growth from emissions growth through energy efficiency and
low-carbon development.
In addition, Turkmenistan has joined a number of international
initiatives. In December 2023, the country signed the Global
Methane Pledge, a move of particular relevance given the dominant
role of natural gas in the national economy. Turkmenistan is also a
party to the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on the
phased reduction of hydrofluorocarbons and supports the Glasgow
Declaration on Forests and Land Use. The National Climate Change
Strategy adopted in 2019 remains the core framework document for
implementing the country’s climate commitments.
In neighboring Central Asian countries, renewable energy
development has accelerated in recent years, although starting
conditions differed significantly. Kazakhstan has emerged as a
regional leader, with wind and solar energy accounting for nearly
5% of electricity generation in 2023. The country has enshrined a
carbon neutrality target in legislation, operates an emissions
trading system, and plans to increase the share of renewables to
15% by 2030.
For comparison, Uzbekistan demonstrates the fastest growth rates
in the region. Since 2022, approximately 2.5 GW of solar and wind
capacity has been commissioned, while national targets have been
raised to 27 GW of installed capacity and a 40% share of green
electricity by 2030. Large-scale solar, wind, and energy storage
projects are currently being implemented.
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rely primarily on hydropower, which
provides 76-88% of their electricity generation. Their focus is
placed on expanding hydropower capacity, reducing seasonal
shortages, and developing cross-border electricity trade within the
Unified Energy System of Central Asia.
Against this backdrop, renewable energy development in
Turkmenistan remains limited, although regional trends are shaping
expectations of a gradual convergence of approaches, particularly
in the areas of solar and hybrid generation.
At present, natural gas accounts for approximately 88% of
primary energy supply, with the remaining share largely
attributable to petroleum products. In 2023, electricity generation
reached nearly 31.9 billion kWh, with virtually all output provided
by gas-fired power plants.
The share of renewable energy sources remains marginal.
According to available data, renewables accounted for about 0.1% of
final energy consumption between 2021 and 2023.
At the same time, domestic energy demand continues to grow. In
2024, per capita energy consumption reached approximately 5.7 tons
of oil equivalent. Infrastructure development and industrial
expansion are increasing pressure on the energy system, making
energy efficiency and gas savings increasingly relevant.
In this context, the legal framework for renewable energy
development was established with the adoption of the Law of
Turkmenistan “On Renewable Energy Sources” on March 13, 2021,
including amendments adopted in November 2023. The law regulates
the production, conversion, storage, distribution, and consumption
of energy derived from solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal sources,
as well as biomass and biogas.
The practical rollout of renewable energy policy in Turkmenistan
is centered around kicking off pilot and hybrid projects. A key
example is the solar-wind power plant with a capacity of 10 MW
currently under construction in the city of Gyzylarbat in the
nation's Balkan region.
The good news is that preparations are also underway for the
implementation of a 300 MW solar photovoltaic power plant in the
city of Kerki in the Lebap region. In parallel,
efficiency-enhancing projects are being implemented, including the
modernization of combined-cycle power plants in the Akhal and
Dashoguz regions, which is expected to save up to 500 million cubic
meters of natural gas annually. Hydropower in Turkmenistan is
represented by the Mary Hydropower Plant, which was commissioned in
2018.
International financial institutions and organizations view
renewable energy development in Turkmenistan primarily through the
lens of emissions reduction and improved energy efficiency. UNDP
and other UN agencies assess national projects in this area as
relatively ambitious, expecting their implementation to be financed
mainly through domestic resources, with international support
provided for monitoring, reporting, and adaptation.
The World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the European
Bank for Reconstruction and Development emphasize the need to
diversify the energy balance, reduce dependence on natural gas, and
modernize infrastructure. Financial and technical assistance,
including approximately $15 million in funding from the Global
Environment Facility, is directed toward institutional development
and the deployment of low-carbon technologies.
Neighboring countries are looking to Turkmenistan to step up to
the plate and take the bull by the horns when it comes to regional
climate and energy initiatives. They’re hoping for a real game
changer in methane emissions reduction, improved gas efficiency,
and a boost in energy cooperation within regional programs.
Experience sharing with neighboring countries, participation in
international sector-specific platforms, and the consistent
development of a national legal framework indicate Turkmenistan’s
intention to gradually synchronize its energy indicators with
regional trends in Central Asia.
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