BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 5. Analysts at the
Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecast that
China’s average annual GDP growth will slow significantly over the
next decade, according to the center's latest report, Trend reports via CEBR.
According to the center’s "World Economic Outlook Table 2026"
report, China recorded GDP growth of 5% in 2024. However, economic
growth is projected to have eased in 2025, with GDP expected to
expand by 4.8%. This marks a notable deceleration from the 6.7%
average growth rate recorded during the 2015-2019 pre-pandemic
period, as the nation faces structural headwinds in its property
sector.
CEBR notes that as of 2025, China’s PPP-adjusted GDP per capita
is estimated at $29,191, classifying the country as an
upper-middle-income economy. Despite the slowing growth, analysts
believe China will continue to improve its global standing in terms
of individual wealth, with its GDP per capita ranking projected to
move from 77th place in 2025 to 64th by 2040.
However, the slowing output has been accompanied by stagnant
consumer price growth. Inflation in 2025 remained subdued at
approximately 0.7%, a sharp contrast to global trends and well
below the targets set in previous years. Analysts highlight that
this deflationary pressure is driven by persistent slack in
domestic demand and excess industrial capacity.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently
upgraded the outlook for China’s growth to 5% for 2025 and 4.5% in
2026, citing strong exports and a strategic pivot toward new
quality productive forces as the 15th Five-Year Plan begins.
