BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 2. China’s economy is
projected to sustain strong growth in 2026, driven by fiscal and
monetary policy support, alongside a reduction in trade-related
pressures, Trend
reports via the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC).


Following robust growth in the first half of 2025 and the third
quarter, China’s economic momentum is expected to remain resilient
in the coming year. This outlook is bolstered by anticipated
continued policy support and the recent trade agreement between the
United States and China, which has successfully reduced the
effective tariff rate from nearly 40% to below 30%.


OPEC observes that the tariff reduction is likely to alleviate
export pressures, narrow China’s competitive gap with other ASEAN
exporters, and provide short-term support to economic activity.
However, the agreement’s one-year suspension period indicates that
trade tensions may persist beyond the immediate future.


From a policy perspective, OPEC emphasizes that China’s recently
unveiled 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) prioritizes the expansion
of domestic demand and a strategic shift towards fostering local
consumption. The plan reaffirms the long-term goal of doubling GDP
by 2035, which implies an average annual real growth rate of
approximately 4.4% from 2025 to 2035. Key measures outlined in the
plan include strengthening social safety nets, improving income
distribution, supporting high-quality employment, and ensuring
equitable access to public services.







Meanwhile, the property sector has shown renewed weakness, with
October data pointing to softer housing activity and prices. OPEC
notes that authorities may consider additional support measures,
including potential mortgage interest subsidies, to help moderate
the downturn.


Both the manufacturing and services sectors are projected to
sustain robust growth, underpinned by supportive policy measures
and a gradual shift in export orientation toward non-U.S. markets.
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has signaled a continued easing
stance, although any additional action will remain contingent on
economic data, particularly if growth remains close to the 5%
target.


The most recent PMI data for November reveal mixed performance
across sectors. The Manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.9, down from
50.6 in October, while the Services PMI held steady in expansionary
territory at 52.1, reflecting sustained growth momentum in the
services sector.