BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 21. Developing
countries are projected to increase their energy consumption by
around 25% by 2050 as population growth and economic development
drive higher demand, according to ExxonMobil’s latest Global
Outlook: Our View to 2050.
The report estimates that more than 4 billion people currently
live in countries where access to energy is below the level
required to meet basic human development needs.
“Access to sufficient, affordable energy enables economic
development,” ExxonMobil said, noting that improvements in
technology and energy efficiency are expected to moderate the
growth in energy demand as populations and prosperity increase.
According to the outlook, the global population is expected to
expand by around 1.5 billion people by 2050, representing an
increase of approximately 20% from current levels. Nearly all of
the population growth is projected to take place in developing
countries.
At the same time, global gross domestic product (GDP) is
forecast to increase by about 80%. Developing economies are
expected to grow at roughly twice the rate of developed economies,
raising their share of global GDP to more than 50% by 2050,
compared with around 40% today.
The combination of population and economic growth is expected to
result in energy consumption in developing countries being
approximately 25% higher in 2050 than today, ExxonMobil said.
Energy access linked to living standards
ExxonMobil's analysis highlights a close relationship between
energy consumption and living standards. Drawing on data from the
United Nations Human Development Index (HDI), the company said
countries with higher energy use generally record higher life
expectancy, education levels and income per capita.
“Energy use and improved living standards go hand in hand. It is
impossible to have one without the other,” the report states.
The company estimates that basic living standards require at
least 50 million British thermal units (MMBtu) of energy per person
annually. By comparison, developed countries currently consume more
than three times that amount on average, at approximately 160 MMBtu
per person.
Around 75% of energy consumption in developed economies is
associated with manufacturing, business activities and commercial
transportation, according to ExxonMobil.
Based on its analysis and UN HDI data, ExxonMobil estimates that
more than 4 billion people live in countries where energy access
remains below the level required to support basic human
development, including housing, infrastructure, employment and
mobility.
The report points to household cooking as one example of the
consequences of inadequate access to reliable energy. In countries
with limited energy access, households often rely on wood, coal or
kerosene for cooking, including indoors.
Citing the World Health Organization, ExxonMobil notes that
household air pollution is associated with approximately 3 million
deaths annually, particularly as a result of the use of polluting
fuels and technologies for cooking.
Improved access to reliable and affordable energy can enable
households to shift toward cleaner cooking options, including
electricity and natural gas, the company said.
Efficiency to curb per capita energy demand
Despite the projected 25% increase in total energy use in
developing countries, ExxonMobil expects growth in per capita
energy demand to remain limited.
The company attributes this to efficiency gains and
technological advances that will reduce the amount of energy
required to support economic activity and rising living
standards.
ExxonMobil also examined a scenario in which all countries reach
its estimated threshold for basic living standards of 50 MMBtu per
person by 2050.
Under that scenario, even with significant efficiency
improvements, the world would require nearly 20% more energy in
2050 than projected in ExxonMobil's base-case Global Outlook.
The finding underscores the scale of the energy challenge facing
developing economies as population growth, industrialization and
higher living standards increase demand while technological
advances work to contain overall energy consumption.
The global energy-access gap remains a major challenge,
particularly in developing economies, where population growth and
economic development are expected to drive higher energy demand in
the coming decades. According to the International Energy Agency
(IEA), around 730 million people worldwide still lack access to
electricity, while nearly 2 billion people do not have access to
clean cooking. The agency says expanding access to modern energy
can improve productivity in agriculture and local industry, while
also supporting health, education and broader economic
development.
The United Nations similarly reports that 666 million people
lacked access to electricity in 2023, while around 2.1 billion
people continued to rely on polluting fuels and technologies for
cooking. Although global access to electricity has continued to
improve, progress remains uneven, with the largest gaps
concentrated in developing regions.
At the same time, developing economies are becoming the main
source of growth in global electricity demand. The IEA expects
emerging and developing economies to account for about 85% of
additional global electricity demand through 2027, reflecting
economic expansion, industrial activity and rising ownership of
appliances and other electricity-consuming technologies.
The growth in energy demand is expected to be partly offset by
improvements in energy efficiency. UN data show that global primary
energy intensity improved by 1.5% in 2023, although the pace of
improvement remains below the level required to meet the UN's 2030
energy-efficiency target.
