BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 21. Global
energy-related CO₂ emissions are projected to peak this decade and
then decline by around 20% by 2050, even as the global economy
expands and living standards improve, according to ExxonMobil’s
latest Global Outlook: Our View to 2050.


ExxonMobil estimates that energy-related CO₂ emissions will peak
at approximately 36 billion metric tons per year sometime this
decade before falling to around 30 billion metric tons annually by
2050.


The company attributes the projected decline to improvements in
energy efficiency and greater use of lower-emissions technologies,
including renewable energy, carbon capture and storage (CCS),
hydrogen and biofuels, alongside a reduction in coal
consumption.


“Efficiency improvements and renewables are necessary but not a
complete solution,” ExxonMobil said, arguing that technologies such
as hydrogen, CCS and biofuels will be needed to address emissions
from sectors that are more difficult to decarbonize.


More action needed to meet climate goals


Despite the projected decline, ExxonMobil said the pace of
emissions reduction would remain insufficient to meet climate
objectives consistent with limiting global temperature increases to
below 2°C.


The company said the average of the IPCC's “Likely Below 2°C”
scenarios requires energy-related CO₂ emissions to fall to
approximately 11 billion metric tons per year by 2050 —
substantially below the roughly 30 billion metric tons projected in
ExxonMobil's outlook.


ExxonMobil also noted that global energy demand is expected to
increase through 2050 as the world's population grows and economies
develop.


According to the company, so-called hard-to-decarbonize sectors,
including commercial transportation, manufacturing and industrial
production, currently account for approximately 45% of global CO₂
emissions, including process emissions but excluding indirect
emissions from electricity use.


The company said these sectors will require a wider range of
technologies to reduce emissions, rather than relying solely on
efficiency improvements and renewable power.







Global emissions continue to rise


ExxonMobil's outlook notes that global energy-related CO₂
emissions continued to increase by approximately 1% in 2025,
broadly in line with the average annual growth rate recorded over
the past two decades.


The company argues that this trend highlights the challenge of
simultaneously meeting rising energy demand and reducing
emissions.


It also points to what it describes as multiple potential
pathways for achieving climate objectives, giving policymakers
scope to balance emissions reductions with energy affordability and
security.


ExxonMobil said that more than two decades after the Kyoto
Protocol entered into force and more than a decade after the Paris
Agreement, the continued rise in energy-related emissions indicates
that additional approaches may be needed to accelerate
reductions.


The company also cites IPCC scenarios as highlighting the
importance of considering the overall climate impact of policies
rather than focusing exclusively on the timing of net-zero
greenhouse-gas emissions. According to ExxonMobil, policies that
constrain energy supply too quickly could contribute to higher
energy prices and economic disruption.


Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are taking
place against a backdrop of rising energy demand and continued
reliance on fossil fuels. According to the International Energy
Agency (IEA), global energy-related CO₂ emissions increased by
around 0.4% in 2025, reaching a new record of approximately 38.4
billion metric tons. The increase was slower than in 2024, as
stronger growth in renewable power, nuclear generation,
electrification and other clean-energy technologies helped limit
emissions growth.


The IEA said emissions from coal increased by around 0.5% in
2025, while oil-related emissions rose by approximately 0.4%. At
the same time, emissions from natural gas increased by around 0.5%.
The agency noted that the expansion of solar PV, wind, nuclear
power and electric vehicles helped avoid a significantly larger
increase in emissions.