BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 21. Global
electricity demand is projected to increase by around 65% by 2050,
driven by economic growth, improving living standards and rising
electrification, according to ExxonMobil’s latest Global Outlook:
Our View to 2050.
The industrial sector is expected to account for approximately
40% of the increase, making it the largest source of additional
electricity demand. Growth will be driven both by expanding
industrial activity and greater electrification of production,
particularly in lower-temperature processes.
Residential and commercial buildings are each projected to
account for around 20% of global electricity-demand growth through
2050. In residential buildings, higher demand will be linked to
population growth and increased use of cooling and heating,
particularly in developing economies, although efficiency
improvements in buildings and appliances are expected to moderate
consumption.
Commercial electricity demand is also expected to rise alongside
economic activity and the expansion of data centers. ExxonMobil
said data centers could have a significant impact on individual
regions and power grids, although their effect is expected to be
more moderate at the national and global levels.
The remaining 20% of global electricity-demand growth is
projected to come from transportation, with passenger vehicles
representing the largest source of additional electricity
consumption, followed by regional trucks and buses.
Solar and wind to lead power-generation
growth
Meeting rising electricity demand will require a broad mix of
generation technologies, ExxonMobil said.
Solar and wind generation is projected to increase more than
fourfold by 2050, accounting for around 85% of global power-demand
growth. Natural gas-fired generation is also expected to increase
by approximately 25%, with gas playing a growing role in
maintaining grid stability as variable renewable generation
expands.
“Nuclear power generation is projected to grow ~60% by 2050,”
ExxonMobil said, citing increasing demand for firm, low-emission
electricity and technological developments such as small modular
reactors.
However, the company expects nuclear expansion to be constrained
in part by the need to replace or upgrade aging reactors, many of
which are approaching or have exceeded 40 years of operation.
ExxonMobil expects electricity to meet nearly all of the growth
in end-use energy demand globally through 2050, reflecting the
increasing electrification of industry, buildings and
transportation.
OECD electricity demand also expected to
increase
Electricity demand growth is not expected to be limited to
developing economies. ExxonMobil projects electricity consumption
in OECD countries to rise by approximately 35% by 2050, following
roughly two decades of broadly flat demand.
The company attributes the expected increase to greater
electrification of industry and transportation, as well as rising
demand from data centers.
In the United States, electricity demand is projected to
increase by more than 40% from 2025 levels by 2050, marking a
reversal from the period of broadly stable demand seen over the
previous two decades.
Industry and transportation are expected to account for around
two-thirds of U.S. electricity-demand growth, broadly reflecting
the global trend.
ExxonMobil also expects substantial regional differences in
power-generation mixes through 2050, influenced by access to
domestic gas, renewable resources, economic conditions, government
policies and energy-security considerations. While renewables are
projected to expand across all regions, gas is expected to retain a
larger role in areas with abundant domestic supplies, while regions
dependent on imported fuels are projected to see stronger renewable
growth alongside continued coal use.
The global power sector is entering a period of accelerating
electricity demand growth, with industrial expansion,
electrification, cooling, electric vehicles and data centers
emerging as major drivers. According to the International Energy
Agency (IEA), global electricity demand increased by around 3% in
2025, after rising 4.4% in 2024. The agency expects demand growth
to accelerate to an average of 3.6% annually between 2026 and 2030,
adding around 1,100 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity demand each
year, compared with an average of about 700 TWh annually during
2015-2025.
Emerging markets and developing economies are driving much of
this expansion. They accounted for around 80% of global
electricity-demand growth in 2025, and the IEA expects them to
maintain a similar share over the next five years. At the same
time, electricity demand is increasing in advanced economies as
industrial activity, data centers, electric vehicles and other
forms of electrification create new loads on power systems.
The growth in electricity consumption is occurring alongside a
rapid expansion of low-emissions generation. The IEA estimates that
renewables and nuclear power together accounted for more than the
total increase in global electricity generation in 2025, while
fossil-fuel generation declined overall. Renewable generation
almost matched coal-fired generation globally in 2025.
Looking ahead to 2030, the IEA expects renewable power capacity
to expand by around 4,600 GW, with solar PV accounting for almost
80% of the increase. Renewables are forecast to provide more than
90% of global electricity-demand growth through 2030, highlighting
the growing role of solar and wind as electricity consumption
rises.
