BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 2. Kazakhstan's Ministry
of National Economy has approved a methodology for calculating
potential gross domestic product (GDP), Trend reports via the ministry.
The move is part of efforts to ensure high-quality economic
growth and further improve macroeconomic analysis.
Potential GDP reflects the maximum level of output an economy
can achieve when production factors are fully utilized and
inflationary pressures are absent.
According to the ministry, calculating this indicator will make
it possible to determine the natural limits of Kazakhstan's
economic growth and assess whether actual economic performance is
above or below its potential level.
The methodology incorporates international approaches to
estimating potential GDP and is based on the widely used
Cobb-Douglas production function. It evaluates the contribution of
key growth factors, including employment expansion, growth in
investment and fixed capital, as well as technological progress,
measured through total factor productivity.
The calculations will be based on official data provided by the
Bureau of National Statistics.
Potential GDP estimates are planned to be produced on a
quarterly basis.
The results will be used for analytical purposes, including
assessing the quality of economic growth and determining the phase
of the economic cycle.
According to data from the Bureau of National Statistics,
Kazakhstan’s GDP growth in January–April 2026 amounted to 3.6%
compared to the same period of the previous year.
Industrial production also moved into positive territory over
the four-month period, with the index of physical volume reaching
102.1%, whereas a decline to 99.9% had been recorded at the end of
the first quarter.
