BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 27. Baku hosted the 2nd
Forum on Logistics and Oil Trade in the Caspian and Central Asian
Regions, an event that increasingly reflects not merely an
industry-specific discussion but a systemic restructuring of global
energy logistics.


The forum’s agenda included transportation and infrastructure,
financial aspects, trading strategies, and risk management amid
highly volatile markets. Essentially, the discussion centered on
how the region is adapting to a new reality where stable routes are
becoming increasingly scarce.


Speaking at the forum, Taghi Taghi-zada, Acting Director of
Trading Operations at SOCAR Trading, noted that the oil market has
entered a phase of chronic instability in recent years.


According to him, since 2019, the industry has experienced a
series of shocks, ranging from attacks on infrastructure in Saudi
Arabia and the COVID-19 pandemic to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and
the current tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.


Taghi Taghi-zada paid particular attention to the Strait of
Hormuz, which has traditionally been viewed in the context of an
“extreme scenario” in textbooks and analytical reports.


“And now we are effectively facing this,” he noted, adding that
the market has been operating under conditions of heightened
uncertainty and reacting to the news flow for quite some time.


In effect, this means that oil prices and logistics solutions
are becoming less dependent on long-term fundamental factors and
increasingly influenced by short-term geopolitical signals.


Against this backdrop, the role of regional routes and
alternative corridors is growing.


Assylbek Jakiyev, Chairman of Kazakhstan’s PetroCouncil,
emphasized in his speech that Kazakhstan plans to attract
approximately $15 billion in investments in the petrochemical
sector in the coming years.


Among the key projects are large-scale polyethylene and
butadiene production facilities, which are expected to
significantly alter the country’s export structure.


However, as Jakiyev noted, the main challenge lies not in
production, but in delivering products to foreign markets.


He emphasized that northern routes may remain limited in the
medium term, which automatically increases the importance of
alternative routes, primarily China, the Caspian region, and the
Middle Corridor.


This marks a key shift: logistics ceases to be a support
function and becomes an element of strategic planning.


This theme was further developed in the presentations by
representatives of the region’s oil industry and logistics
companies, who are increasingly speaking of the need to synchronize
infrastructure investments on both sides of the Caspian Sea.


The forum placed particular emphasis on the Middle Corridor,
which is already considered one of the most reliable routes.


Kuanysh Keskinbayev, Deputy General Director of KMG Kashagan
B.V., noted that the corridor’s capacity for Kazakhstani oil is
approximately 5 million tons; however, further growth requires
investment in ports, the fleet, and railway infrastructure.


He also highlighted the economic specifics of the route: despite
higher transportation costs compared to the CPC, the final export
profitability can be comparable due to oil price factors.


This effectively means that the choice of route is increasingly
determined not only by tariffs but also by the flexibility of the
system as a whole.







A practical example of infrastructure development is the Kulevi
terminal on the Black Sea, which was discussed by Ismayil Kerimov,
CEO of SOCAR Georgia Black Sea Terminal.


He announced that the transition to round-the-clock operations
and infrastructure modernization has made it possible to nearly
double transshipment capacity.


Today, the terminal is capable of handling large-capacity
vessels and operating without significant delays, which directly
impacts the speed of the entire supply chain.


This reflects a broader trend: competition in oil logistics is
increasingly less determined by production and more by the
efficiency of infrastructure.


At the same time, the forum discussed the development of the
ports of Alat, Dubendi, Aktau, and Kuryk, as well as
Baku-Tbilisi-Kars and other key hubs that form the backbone of the
Middle Corridor.


Separately, experts also touched on the prospects for the
southern route.


Shehryar Omar, a representative of the Petroleum Institute of
Pakistan, noted that over the next 5–10 years, demand growth will
shift toward South Asia and markets with a population of about two
billion people.


According to him, this is gradually changing the logic of global
flows, reducing Europe’s long-term role and increasing the
importance of routes to the Arabian Sea.


For countries in the region, this means not only new
opportunities but also the need for accelerated infrastructure
development.


In this context, Pakistan is increasingly viewed as a potential
energy and transportation hub connecting Central Asia with southern
markets.


Concluding the discussion on risks, representatives from the
financial and legal sectors noted that the growing complexity of
supply chains requires more active implementation of insurance
instruments.


According to Mike Shaw of Orbis Risk Partners, charterer
liability and multimodal transport insurance in the region remains
underdeveloped, despite the growing complexity of logistics
chains.


In effect, this means that risks are currently distributed
unevenly, and many market participants remain vulnerable to supply
chain disruptions.


At the same time, Dentons partner Tim Stubbs emphasized that
increased uncertainty is accompanied by increased
opportunities.


According to him, the accelerated development of the Middle
Corridor opens up new prospects for the countries of Central Asia
and the Caucasus, especially against the backdrop of the
restructuring of global trade.


The forum in Baku effectively marked a significant shift: the
region’s oil logistics are moving away from a linear system and
evolving into a multi-layered architecture of routes, risks, and
investment decisions.


Indeed, the ability of the Caspian and Central Asian countries
to rapidly adapt their infrastructure is becoming a key factor in
their competitiveness within the new energy landscape.