BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 1. The European Bank
for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has forecasted steady
growth for Georgia’s economy over the next two years.
Data obtained by Trend from the bank shows that Georgia's real gross
domestic product (GDP) is projected to increase by 5.5% in 2026,
followed by a growth of 5.0% in 2027. This growth is bolstered by
significant contributions from key sectors and ongoing investment
initiatives.
The report highlights that the Georgian economy grew by 7.7%
year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, although the pace
of growth gradually slowed from 9.9% in the first quarter to 7.4%
in the second quarter and 6.4% in the third quarter. The expansion
was driven primarily by the services sector, with significant
contributions from information and communication technologies
(ICT), education, transportation, and logistics.
"Domestic demand was supported by rising wages and active credit
growth. Overall inflation exceeded the central bank’s target of 3%,
averaging 4.0% in 2025. The National Bank of Georgia kept the key
interest rate at 8.0% throughout the year, expecting inflation to
return to its target level," the EBRD noted.
The bank also emphasized improvements in Georgia’s external
position. The current account deficit narrowed from 5.2% of GDP a
year earlier to 3.5% of GDP in the third quarter of 2025. Official
foreign currency reserves recovered from a minimum of $4.1 billion
in October 2024 to $6.2 billion by December 2025, covering
approximately four months of imports. Public debt fell to 34.9% of
GDP by September 2025, the lowest level in a decade, due to strong
nominal GDP growth and a stable exchange rate.
Looking ahead, the EBRD report suggests that flagship investment
projects in real estate, transport, and renewable energy could
further boost Georgia’s growth, potentially pushing GDP growth
beyond the projected 5.5% in 2026 and 5.0% in 2027. However,
ongoing tensions with key economic partners may pose challenges to
the country’s economic outlook.
