BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 15. SOCAR’s capital
expenditure is expected to average around AZN4 billion annually in
2026–2030, while the company’s EBITDA net leverage is projected to
increase to about 2x by 2029, Fitch Ratings said.
Fitch expects SOCAR’s production decline to stabilise from 2028.
The company is also expected to provide around AZN250 million
annually to support Petkim through 2027, while dividends and
distributions to the Azerbaijani government are forecast to average
AZN1.8 billion per year over 2026–2030.
SOCAR’s EBITDA after dividends to non-controlling interests rose
to AZN9.3 billion in 2025 from AZN5 billion in 2024, driven by the
full-year consolidation of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) and STAR
refinery.
“As a result, EBITDA net leverage was low at 1.0x,” Fitch
said.
The agency expects leverage to remain around 1.0x in 2026, as
higher capital expenditure and M&A spending are offset by
strong oil and gas prices and refining margins. EBITDA after
dividends to non-controlling interests is forecast at AZN12 billion
in 2026 before declining to AZN8–7.5 billion in 2028–2029.
At end-2025, SOCAR held AZN14 billion in cash and cash
equivalents and around AZN1.5 billion in Fitch-adjusted marketable
securities, compared with AZN15.1 billion in short-term debt.
During 2026, SOCAR repaid or refinanced AZN14.2 billion of debt
using a combination of short- and long-term financing.
Fitch also highlighted SOCAR’s strategic role as Azerbaijan’s
oil and gas producer, domestic refined-product supplier and a key
participant in major energy projects, including the SGC. The agency
noted that SOCAR is the country’s largest employer and taxpayer and
the state’s main vehicle for developing the oil and gas
industry.
