BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 14. The
International Energy Agency (IEA) has updated global oil supply
forecasts.


This was reflected in a report published by the IEA.


According to the report, global oil supply in 2026 can average
100.7 million barrels per day, 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd)
lower than the previous forecast.


"Global oil supply fell by 1.6 million bpd in August compared to
the previous month, dropping to 100.1 million bpd," the report
noted.


According to IEA data, attacks on tankers and energy
infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea in August
caused Saudi Arabia to significantly reduce its oil production.


"Saudi Arabia cut its total oil production by 2.6 million bpd,"
the report emphasized.


Based on preliminary tanker tracking data, heightened security
risks led to severe restrictions on exports from Saudi Arabia's
west coast.


"Crude oil shipments fell to 6 million bpd, the lowest level in
more than three decades," the IEA stated.


According to the report, production by OPEC+ countries declined
by 1.8 million bpd in August, totaling 38.8 million bpd. The agency
noted that the drop in Saudi supplies was compounded by
restrictions on Iranian oil shipments resulting from a U.S. naval
blockade.


Meanwhile, oil production outside the OPEC+ group rose by
240,000 barrels per day (bpd) to reach 61.3 million bpd. This
increase was driven primarily by a rise in natural gas liquids
(NGL) output in the U.S. and increased production in the UAE.


The IEA has also lowered its forecast for 2026.


"Global oil supply is expected to average 100.7 million bpd in
2026. This is 1.3 million bpd lower than the forecast in our
previous report," the report said.







The agency anticipates that the full restoration of oil supplies
from Gulf countries will be delayed until 2027.


In August, oil exports from Gulf countries fell by 2.1 million
bpd month-on-month to 13 million bpd. Crude oil and condensate
accounted for 10.4 million bpd of this total.


"Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz dropped by 170,000 bpd
to 7.6 million bpd, while exports bypassing the strait fell by 1.9
million bpd to 5.5 million bpd," the IEA report noted.


However, it was reported that exports through the Strait of
Hormuz increased following attacks earlier in the month. This has
been influenced by the purchase of Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil at
significant discounts, as well as Saudi Arabia’s commencement of
spot cargo shipments via the Gulf of Oman.


Global crude oil loadings rose by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd)
month-on-month in August, reaching 40.8 million bpd. This increase
was attributed to the resumption of supplies from the Caspian
Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal and West African exports
reaching a yearly high of 3.6 million bpd.


U.S. oil exports increased by 80,000 bpd to 3.8 million bpd,
while China's crude oil imports rose by 330,000 bpd to 7.3 million
bpd.


According to IEA forecasts, OPEC+ production is projected to
fall by 6.3 million bpd year-on-year to 40.5 million bpd in 2026.
Meanwhile, supply from outside OPEC+ is expected to rise by 630,000
bpd, reaching 60.2 million bpd.


"The 'Americas five'—comprising the U.S., Canada, Brazil,
Argentina, and Guyana—will increase supply by 1.4 million bpd in
2026," the report said.


The IEA anticipates higher growth in global oil supply by
2027.


"Global oil supply is projected to rise by 8 million barrels per
day to 108.7 million barrels per day by 2027. OPEC+ production will
account for 5.5 million barrels per day of this increase," the
agency's report noted.


According to a table in the report, the total production of
OPEC+ countries is expected to reach 46 million barrels per day in
2027.