BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 20. Kyrgyzstan is
implementing a range of projects to modernize hydropower plants and
expand its energy infrastructure, including the upgrade of existing
hydropower facilities and the construction of new generation assets
through 2026-2029.
The modernization of hydropower infrastructure and the
implementation of large-scale projects in the hydropower sector
form the basis for a long-term increase in electricity generation
and for strengthening the role of renewable energy sources in the
country’s energy mix.
In a broader context, the current projects are part of a
long-term transformation of Kyrgyzstan’s energy system, which is
primarily based on hydropower. The sector remains the key source of
electricity generation but is also characterized by high
sensitivity to seasonal water fluctuations and limitations in
transmission capacity.
Against this backdrop, the modernization of existing facilities
and the expansion of generation capacity are viewed as
interconnected processes aimed at improving the reliability of
power supply and adapting to growing domestic demand.
Within the framework of ongoing projects, hydropower units at
existing plants are being modernized, including upgrades at the
Uch-Kurgan HPP. These works are aimed at improving generation
efficiency, reducing equipment wear, and extending the operational
lifespan of existing capacities.
At the same time, the reconstruction of grid infrastructure is
being carried out. In particular, at the Kurpsai HPP, there are
plans to replace 63 MVA autotransformers with higher-capacity 125
MVA units at the 220/110 kV substation. This is expected to
increase the reliability of electricity transmission and enhance
the stability of the energy system during peak loads.
The next group of projects is related to the expansion of
installed capacity. A key focus is the Kambarata-1 HPP, with a
projected capacity of around 1,860 MW, which is considered a
long-term strategic infrastructure project. At the current stage,
preparatory works are underway, including the construction of
roads, transmission lines, and a bridge across the Naryn River,
which will provide access to the construction site and serve as a
key logistical component of the future project.
In parallel, development continues at Kambarata-2 HPP, where
preparations are underway for the commissioning of the second
hydropower unit. After its launch, the installed capacity of the
plant is expected to increase from 120 MW to 240 MW. The project
includes the construction of infrastructure for personnel,
production, and auxiliary facilities, as well as the preparation of
design documentation for key technological components.
Despite the scale of the announced projects, their
implementation remains linked to several structural factors. These
include the high capital intensity of hydropower projects, long
construction timelines, dependence on contractors and equipment
supplies, as well as the need to synchronize generation development
with the expansion of grid infrastructure.
Of particular importance is the phased nature of implementation,
where capacity additions and infrastructure development proceed in
parallel but on different time horizons.
If current projects are implemented consistently, a gradual
increase in the share of hydropower in the country’s energy mix may
be achieved. This could reduce dependence on seasonal supply
shortages and expand system balancing capabilities.
At the same time, the development of new capacity and the
modernization of existing plants create conditions for a structural
shift in generation, although the overall impact will depend on the
pace of project implementation and the state of grid
infrastructure.
In the medium- and long-term perspective, several development
scenarios can be identified. Under an accelerated implementation
scenario with stable investment support, a faster expansion of
generating capacity could reduce the risk of electricity shortages
during peak periods and expand export potential.
The baseline scenario assumes a gradual commissioning of
projects within the planned timelines, with improvements in system
stability occurring incrementally without abrupt structural
changes.
In the event of slower construction progress or financing
constraints, delays in capacity commissioning are possible, which
would maintain the existing dependence on seasonal variations in
generation.
There is also a scenario of shifting priorities, where emphasis
may move toward the modernization of existing plants rather than
the construction of large new facilities, allowing efficiency
improvements without significant capacity expansion.
Thus, the current configuration of hydropower projects in
Kyrgyzstan reflects a combination of modernization and expansion
approaches, the outcomes of which will be determined by a
combination of technical, financial, and institutional factors.
