ASTANA, Kazakhstan, March 6. The Monetary
Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan has decided to
keep the base rate at 18% per annum with a corridor of ±1
percentage point, Trend reports via the bank.
The decision was based on the results of the latest forecast
round, updated assessments of key macroeconomic indicators, and the
balance of inflation risks.
Annual inflation in Kazakhstan slowed to 11.7% in February 2026,
down from 12.2% in January, in line with forecasts. All components
of inflation showed a slowdown. Food prices increased by 12.7%
(12.9% in January), non-food goods by 11.6% (11.7%), and paid
services by 10.8% (12%).
The National Bank noted that disinflation has been supported by
moderately tight monetary conditions, the strengthening of the
tenge, slower growth in unsecured consumer lending, and the gradual
withdrawal of excess liquidity. Additional factors include the
government’s anti-inflation measures, including a moratorium on
price increases for utilities and fuel.
At the same time, monthly inflation accelerated to 1.1% in
February, while core inflation stood at 0.8%.
Inflation expectations among the population for the next 12
months declined to 13.7% in February, though they remain elevated
and volatile. Professional market participants lowered their
inflation forecast for 2026 to 10%, compared to 10.8% in
January.
The National Bank revised its 2026 inflation forecast downward
to 9.5–11.5% from the previous 9.5–12.5%. Inflation is expected to
slow to 5.5–7.5% in 2027 and approach the 5% target by 2028.
Kazakhstan’s GDP growth forecast for 2026 remains unchanged at
3.5–4.5%, with economic activity expected to follow a more moderate
trajectory following the high base of 2025.
According to the bank,a potential rate cut could be considered
in the second half of 2026.
