BAKU, Azerbaijan,
March 4. The launch of military airstrikes by the
U.S. and Israel on Iran on February 28, and Iran's retaliatory
strikes on U.S. military bases in the Gulf countries and Israel on
the same day, caused oil prices to rise rapidly in the global
market. As a result, the average price of a crude oil barrel has
grown by 10%, reaching around $80.


One of the main reasons for the growth in the global market
price of crude oil is the risks arising in the transportation of
crude oil and hydrocarbons from the Gulf countries, which provide
approximately 20% of the world's energy. The exit point from the
Gulf countries to the world markets is the Strait of Hormuz, which
is always in the spotlight. Iran is located to the north of this
strait, which is approximately 39 kilometers wide, and the UAE and
Oman are located to the south. The Iranian side has currently
strengthened security measures in the strait and is imposing
restrictions on the passage of some tankers with various
arguments.


On March 2, Iranian Ambassador to Azerbaijan Mojtaba Demirchilou
said at a press conference in Baku that Iran had not closed the
Strait and that measures had been taken to address environmental
issues with several tankers attempting to pass through the route.
He also warned that Iran can take different steps if the situation
continues.


On the other hand, General Ebrahim Jabari, advisor to the
commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
(IRGC), made a harsher statement. He said that if Iran’s security
is threatened, oil transportation through the Strait can be
blocked, and in that case, the price of oil can rise from $80 to
$200.


Against the backdrop of these statements, it is likely that Iran
has significant control over the passages in the Strait of Hormuz
and that tougher decisions could be made as tensions rise.







The main oil suppliers – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq,
and Iran – export crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. In the
event of a closure of the Strait, the access of oil produced in the
Gulf to world markets could be severely limited. Most of the crude
oil is exported through the Strait of Hormuz to Asian markets.
Countries such as China, Japan, India, and South Korea meet the
majority of their oil needs from this region.


At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz is of strategic
importance not only for crude oil but also for LNG shipments. In
particular, a large part of the liquefied natural gas produced by
Qatar is exported to Asian markets via this route. A full or
partial closure of the Strait can cause severe turbulence in energy
markets, energy shortages in major producing countries, and serious
disruptions in the global supply chain.


The restrictions that have arisen in the Strait of Hormuz over
the past three days have had a serious impact on the price of crude
oil on the global market. This suggests that if the process
continues, additional price increases may be observed against the
background of a decrease in supply. This can strengthen global
inflationary pressures and create an additional burden, especially
on the economies of countries dependent on energy imports.