ASTANA, Kazakhstan, December 10. Kazakhstan’s
banking sector is expected to remain resilient in 2026, supported
by the country’s continued economic expansion, specifically 5.6% in
2025 and 4.6% in 2026, Trend reports via Fitch Ratings.
According to the organization, both stronger oil output and
steady development outside Kazakhstan's mining industry will help
underpin financial results.
Despite pressures on interest margins and a slowdown in consumer
lending growth, overall profitability is expected to remain strong.
Fitch highlights that high policy rates, manageable credit costs,
and ample opportunities for loan issuance will continue to support
revenue generation.
The agency further anticipates that banks will sustain solid
capital and liquidity positions. The sector’s average Tier 1
capital ratio is projected to remain near 20%, supported by robust
earnings and moderate growth in risk-weighted assets. Liquidity
buffers are expected to stay substantial, bolstered by significant
holdings of high-quality liquid securities, while limited reliance
on wholesale borrowings reduces refinancing risks.
However, certain regulatory factors may slightly hinder
performance. Recent macroprudential measures aimed at curbing
retail lending are already dampening risk-taking appetite, and the
gradual increase in reserve requirements through the third quarter
of 2026 may raise funding costs and exert downward pressure on
margins.
