BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 3. Global natural
gas demand is forecast to decline by around 1.5% in 2026 compared
with the previous year, equivalent to nearly 65 billion cubic
metres (bcm). This would mark the third annual decline in global
gas consumption since 2020.
The forecast is outlined in the International Energy Agency’s
(IEA) Global Gas Security Review 2026.
According to the IEA’s preliminary data, global natural gas
consumption fell by more than 1%, or over 35 bcm, in
January-September 2026 compared with the same period last year. The
agency noted that the decline was entirely concentrated in the
second and third quarters.
"The decline in demand was driven by lower gas consumption in
the Middle East, as well as reduced gas use amid high prices in key
LNG-importing markets in Asia and Europe.
In particular, higher gas prices encouraged a switch from gas to
coal in the power sectors of several Asian countries. In addition,
rising natural gas prices led to lower consumption in
energy-intensive industries, including fertiliser production.
The decline in global demand in 2026 will be concentrated
primarily in the power generation, energy and industrial sectors,
which together will account for 90% of the overall reduction.
The impact of the conflict in the Middle East on gas markets
varies significantly across regions. The Middle Eastern countries
have been the most directly affected, as damage to local gas
production and processing facilities has led to a sharp decline in
output across gas-intensive industries.
As a result, natural gas consumption in the Middle East is
expected to fall by around 10% in 2026. This would represent an
unprecedented decline in regional demand," the report said.
According to the IEA's forecast, natural gas demand in the
Asia-Pacific region will decline by 1.5% in 2026.
"Limited LNG availability and high prices will encourage a shift
towards coal in power generation, as well as lower operating rates
at energy-intensive industrial facilities," the report noted.
"In Europe, natural gas consumption is expected to decline by 3%
over the year. This will be driven by lower industrial gas use amid
high prices, as well as reduced consumption in the power sector
owing to increased electricity generation from renewable
sources.
In regions with limited dependence on LNG imports, the impact of
the conflict has been relatively modest.
In Africa, natural gas demand is projected to increase by nearly
5% year-on-year in 2026, primarily driven by the power generation
and energy sectors.
Gas consumption is also expected to rise in Central and South
America. One contributing factor will be lower hydropower
generation, which is likely to prompt greater use of natural gas in
the power sector.
In North America, natural gas demand is forecast to grow by
slightly more than 0.5%. Lower consumption in buildings will be
more than offset by increased gas use in the power generation and
energy sectors, supported by the region's expanding LNG
liquefaction capacity," the agency said.
Meanwhile, natural gas consumption in Eurasia is projected to
increase by around 1.5% in 2026, according to the IEA.
"This will be supported by higher gas consumption in buildings
due to colder winter weather during the first quarter," the report
said.
