BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 3. Oil shipments
through the strategic Strait of Hormuz are expected to embark on a
gradual recovery in 2027, though volumes will fall short of
pre-conflict levels, energy consultancy Rystad Energy noted in a
report led by Jorge León, the firm's head of geopolitical
analysis.


According to Rystad Energy’s base-case scenario, a limited
agreement could be reached between the U.S. and Iran by the end of
the first half of 2027. However, the core points of contention
between the two sides would remain unresolved.


The company emphasized that a growth in oil shipments through
the Strait doesn’t signify a normalization of the situation.


"Despite the resumption of shipping, the number of attacks on
commercial vessels has risen significantly, and the cost of
maritime transport has surged," the company remarked.


In September, Rystad Energy projected a prolonged standoff
followed by a gradual improvement. At that time, analysts expected
oil exports to begin recovering in early 2027 and to return to
normal levels within the course of that year.


The forecast has now been revised: while a gradual recovery in
shipments is expected, a full return to pre-war figures isn’t
anticipated.


"Total crude oil exports from Persian Gulf nations averaged
nearly 12 million barrels per day in September and the first 20
days of October. While this is well above the lows recorded earlier
in the conflict, it remains substantially below the pre-war level
of approximately 18 million barrels per day," the report said.







Meanwhile, the security situation for shipping has deteriorated.
According to Rystad Energy, the number of incidents involving
disruptions to vessel traffic reached 10 in a single week,
subsequently rising to 16—13 of which occurred within the Strait of
Hormuz itself. Over the following week, another 11 such incidents
were recorded, including eight within the strait itself.


Rystad Energy also noted that the positions of the U.S. and Iran
remain fundamentally at odds, with limited diplomatic progress. The
risk of renewed military escalation persists, including in the
period following the U.S. midterm elections, which are set to take
place in early November.


"Achieving a comprehensive settlement would require addressing
issues related to Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions, Tehran-backed
armed groups in the region, and the security of maritime shipping,
while also taking into account Israel’s security interests. We
consider it unlikely that all these points of contention can be
resolved within the coming year," the report pointed out.


The analysts also focused on OPEC+ policy. The alliance’s
decision to maintain oil production at current levels in December
was expected. Of greater significance will be the OPEC+ ministerial
meeting scheduled for November 29, where participants will
determine production policy parameters for 2027.


"In reaching their decision, the alliance members will have to
weigh the uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict, the pace
at which supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are restored, and
the potential for a supply surplus once previously removed oil
volumes return to the market," the report noted.


OPEC+ previously decided to increase oil production by 188,000
barrels per day in September, before opting to keep production
levels unchanged for December.