BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 3. The share of
fossil fuels in global energy consumption is projected to decline
from 86.7% in 2026 to 82.7% by 2035, according to a report by BMI,
a division of Fitch Solutions.


The forecast was published in an analytical review evaluating
global energy transition trends ahead of the upcoming 31st UN
Climate Change Conference (COP31).


According to BMI's forecast, global consumption of fossil fuels
will continue to grow through 2035, despite increased electricity
use and declining demand for oil, gas, and coal in several major
energy-importing regions.


The consumption will reach 586.1 exajoules (EJ) in 2035, up 3.8%
from 2026.


"Declining fossil fuel consumption in Western Europe, China, and
Japan won’t offset its growth in emerging markets and
energy-exporting countries.


By 2035, combined fossil fuel consumption in Western Europe,
China, and Japan will decline by 21.3 exajoules compared to 2026.
Meanwhile, this figure will increase by 35.1 exajoules in the
Middle East and North Africa (MENA), India, Indonesia, Latin
America, and Sub-Saharan Africa.


Energy security has become one of the central themes in
preparations for COP31 amid the crisis surrounding the Strait of
Hormuz and subsequent conflicts with Iran. In particular, countries
dependent on energy imports view electrification as one way to
reduce their reliance on foreign fuel supplies.


The COP31 Presidency has put forward a voluntary target of
increasing the share of electricity in final energy consumption to
35% by 2035. The initiative, known as the 35-by-35 Global
Electrification Pledge, was presented in New York on September 21,"
the review said.







However, according to BMI's forecast, the global electrification
rate will reach only 27.9% by 2035. Only the Asia-Pacific region
and Western Europe are expected to come close to the target.


The company noted that countries' national climate plans don’t
yet meet the requirements for achieving the goals of the Paris
Agreement, while the commitments submitted fall significantly short
of the necessary targets.


BMI forecasted that global emissions from the energy sector will
continue to increase through 2032. Emissions growth in India,
Indonesia, and the Gulf countries is expected to offset reductions
in Europe and China.


The review also notes that COP31 will take place from November 9
through November 20, 2026, in Antalya, Türkiye. Under an agreement
reached at COP30 in Belem in November 2025, Türkiye will host the
conference and lead the action agenda, while Australia will oversee
the negotiation process.


"Among the key issues for the upcoming negotiations, BMI
highlights the just transition mechanism agreed upon in Belem,
financing for climate change adaptation measures, and closing the
gap between national commitments and the goals of the Paris
Agreement.


The U.S.' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement reduces the
likelihood of adopting new binding international climate
commitments, so COP31 is likely to focus primarily on voluntary
initiatives.


The average price of Brent crude since the beginning of 2026 has
stood at around $95 per barrel, compared to $69 per barrel in
2025," the BMI review added.