TAP gas supplies to EU to remain broadly flat this heating season – IEA

BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 3. Gas supplies to
the European Union via the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) are
expected to remain broadly flat this heating season, says the
International Energy Agency (IEA) in its Global Gas Security Review
2026.

IEA analysts note that piped gas supplies have limited
flexibility upward as deliveries typically run close to nameplate
capacity.

“Europe’s pipeline imports are expected to marginally decline
compared with the previous heating season. Flows from Norway to the
rest of Europe are projected to decline by 1% (or 1 bcm) y-o-y amid
the outage at the Ormen Lange field, which is expected to last
until the end of January 2027. Natural gas exports from Azerbaijan
to the European Union via the TAP pipeline are expected to remain
broadly flat, with flows running close to nameplate capacity,” the
report reads.

Similarly, according to the IEA, Russia’s piped gas exports to
the European Union are expected to stay close to their levels
during the 2025/26 heating season as the full ban on Russian piped
imports is only due to enter into force in Q4 2027.

Meanwhile, IEA notes that gas exports from Azerbaijan to the
European Union remained close to last year’s levels in Q1-Q3
2026.

TAP forms the European section of the Southern Gas Corridor,
through which natural gas from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz field is
delivered to European markets. The 877-kilometer pipeline runs from
the Greek-Turkish border through Greece and Albania, crosses the
Adriatic Sea and reaches the southern coast of Italy. TAP has an
initial capacity of 10 bcm of gas per year, with the potential to
increase capacity to 20 bcm per year.

TAP has to date delivered more than 60 billion cubic meters of
natural gas to Europe, including 50 billion cubic meters to
Italy.