BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 23. The Monetary
Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan has decided to
set the base rate at 15.75% per annum, down from 16.25%, with a
corridor of +/- 1 percentage point, according to the NBK.


"Annual inflation continued its downward trajectory for the
twelfth consecutive month, reaching 9.3% in September 2026,
supported by moderately tight monetary policy and the favorable
dynamics of the tenge exchange rate. Food inflation decelerated to
8.5% (down from 9.5%) driven by lower prices for fruits and
vegetables and a slowdown in meat price growth. Non-food inflation
declined to 11.0% (down from 11.4%) due to a slower annual price
increase for fuel and lubricants. Meanwhile, services inflation
remained unchanged at 8.9%, amid high price growth for unregulated
services", the bank said.


Monthly inflation in September stood at 0.6% (matching August's
0.6%), while seasonally adjusted inflation was recorded at 0.7%
(down from 0.9% in August). The median of seasonally adjusted core
inflation estimates remained at 0.7%, indicating persistent price
pressures.


One-year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 11.8% in September
(down from 12.1% in August). Professional market participants
revised their inflation forecasts downward to 9.5% for the end of
2026 (from 10.0%) and to 8.3% for 2027 (from 8.5%).


According to the bank, the external environment remains
pro-inflationary. Tensions in the Middle East continue to support
elevated global energy prices. The FAO Food Price Index rose to
136.0 points in September, an increase of 1.5% month-on-month and
5.8% year-on-year, driven primarily by higher prices for cereals,
sugar, and vegetable oils due to adverse weather and logistical
constraints. Global monetary conditions are tightening, with the
ECB raising interest rates for the second time this year and the US
Federal Reserve increasing rates for the first time since 2023,
while the Bank of Russia paused rate cuts amid rising price
pressures.







Kazakhstan's economic growth remains robust. Operational data
indicates that in January–September 2026, GDP grew by 4.2%, led by
non-resource sectors including construction, manufacturing, and
transportation. Capital investments grew by 7.0%, while
non-budgetary investments in the non-resource sector surged by
25.0%. Although consumer demand growth moderated alongside the
normalization of consumer lending, fiscal and quasi-fiscal stimulus
alongside strong investment activity continues to support domestic
demand.


The NBK noted that the balance of risks remains tilted to the
upside. Internal risks stem from fiscal expansion, elevated
inflation expectations, fuel prices, and utility tariffs. External
risks include high global energy and food prices, accelerating
inflation among trading partners, and tighter global financial
conditions. Moderating factors include tight monetary policy, a
stable tenge exchange rate, liquidity management measures
(including mirroring operations and higher reserve requirements),
and consumer credit regulation.


According to the bank's statement, the ongoing deceleration in
annual inflation and inflation expectations provided room for
easing monetary policy. The current policy stance maintains the
necessary degree of monetary tightness required to anchor
disinflation and return inflation to its 5.0% target by 2028.


Looking ahead, the National Bank noted that a slight temporary
acceleration in annual inflation remains possible toward the end of
the year due to the low base effect from 2025 utility tariff
moratoria. Given the current balance of risks, the likelihood of
further rate adjustments before the end of 2026 remains low, and
subsequent decisions will depend on sustained easing of underlying
price pressures and the evolution of economic risks.