BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 16. The share of
Azerbaijan’s non-oil and gas sector in GDP is projected to increase
significantly from 2027 through 2030.


This is reflected in the Statement on the Initial Indicators of
the State and Consolidated Budgets for 2027 released by
Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Finance.


According to the statement, the baseline scenario assumes an
average annual export price of $65 per barrel of oil in 2027–2030.
Azerbaijan’s GDP is projected to reach 141 billion manat ($82.9
billion) by the end of 2027, of which 109.1 billion manat ($64.2
billion) will account for non-oil and gas GDP. Based on these
figures, the share of the non-oil and gas sector in GDP will stand
at about 77.4% that year.


By the end of the forecast period, in 2030, the country’s GDP is
expected to reach 169.1 billion manat ($99.5 billion), while
non-oil and gas GDP is projected at 138.6 billion manat ($81.5
billion). Thus, the share of the non-oil and gas sector in GDP is
projected to rise to 82% in 2030, an increase of about 4.6
percentage points compared with 2027.


The statement notes that real GDP growth in Azerbaijan is
projected to average 3.3% annually over the medium term, while real
growth in non-oil and gas GDP is expected to average 4.4%. Thus,
growth in the non-oil and gas sector is expected to outpace overall
economic growth, accompanied by a greater role for the non-oil
sector in the structure of economic growth in the coming years.







According to a chart included in the statement, real GDP growth
is projected at 1.4% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, 2.7% in 2027, 2.6% in
2028, 4.2% in 2029 and 3.6% in 2030.


Growth in the non-oil and gas sector is expected to stand at
2.7% in 2025, 3.1% in 2026, 4.4% in both 2027 and 2028, 4.3% in
2029 and 4.5% in 2030.


At the same time, the oil and gas sector is projected to
contract by 1.6% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027, 3.5% in 2028
and 4% in 2029. In 2030, real growth in the oil and gas sector is
expected to be zero.


Thus, the non-oil and gas sector is projected to strengthen its
position in 2027–2030, both in terms of real growth and its share
of GDP. During this period, its share of GDP is expected to
increase from 77.4% to 82%.