BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 2. TotalEnergies has
presented three scenarios for the development of the global energy
system through 2060, highlighting the differing roles of fossil
fuels, renewables and electricity depending on the pace of the
energy transition and international climate cooperation.


The company published the eighth edition of its TotalEnergies
Energy Outlook, examining global energy trends, investment flows,
geopolitical developments and possible pathways towards
decarbonization.


According to the report, demand for all energy sources,
including coal, oil, natural gas and electricity, continues to
increase as economies develop. However, the growth of fossil fuel
consumption and associated greenhouse gas emissions is slowing,
while global economic growth remains above 3%.


"To meet this energy need, demand for all energy sources is
still growing today: coal, oil, gas and electricity, renewables in
particular. However, the growth rate of fossil fuels and of their
associated greenhouse gas emissions is slowing, while global
economic growth continues at a pace above 3%," the report
notes.


TotalEnergies said investment in low-carbon energy, including
the electrification of end-use sectors, nearly doubled between 2015
and 2025, rising from $1.2 trillion to $2.1 trillion. China remains
the leading player in the expansion of low-carbon technologies,
accounting for around 60% of new solar panel installations, 70% of
wind turbine additions and 60% of electric vehicle sales, according
to the outlook.


The report also points to energy security as an increasingly
important factor shaping the transition, particularly following the
Strait of Hormuz crisis in 2026 and the disruption caused by the
Ukraine crisis in 2022. "Resilience and security of supply require
developing domestically available energies (renewables, biofuels,
etc.) as well as diversifying supply sources and storing fossil
fuels, given their weight in today's energy system."


Three scenarios through 2060







TotalEnergies' three scenarios — Trends, Momentum and Rupture —
are based on different assumptions about government climate
policies, technological progress, international cooperation and
consumer behaviour.


Under the Trends scenario, current policy directions and market
developments continue, with the deployment of mature low-carbon
technologies such as solar and wind power, electric vehicles and
heat pumps. However, infrastructure limitations, geopolitical
tensions and cost barriers constrain their expansion.


In this scenario, OECD countries do not achieve carbon
neutrality by 2050, while China approaches the target by 2060.
Global demand for petroleum products rises and reaches a plateau
during the 2030s before gradually declining. Natural gas demand
continues to increase before stabilising in the 2040s.


TotalEnergies estimates that this pathway would result in global
warming of 2.6°C to 2.8°C by 2100.


The Momentum scenario assumes a faster energy transition, with
OECD countries approaching carbon neutrality by 2050 and China by
2060. It envisages greater electrification, the near phase-out of
coal in OECD countries, a substantial reduction in coal consumption
in China and limited growth in India. Natural gas would continue to
serve as a transition fuel in power generation and industry, while
low-carbon hydrogen and sustainable fuels would be deployed in
sectors that are difficult to electrify, including aviation and
shipping. However, fossil fuels would still account for half of the
growth in energy demand in India and other parts of the world
because of insufficient investment in low-carbon alternatives. The
scenario would lead to an estimated global temperature increase of
2.3°C to 2.4°C by 2100.


The Rupture scenario represents a more ambitious pathway,
designed to limit global warming to below 2°C by 2100, in line with
the Paris Agreement. TotalEnergies said achieving this outcome
would require substantially stronger international cooperation and
faster global decarbonization. Under this scenario, coal
consumption in power generation would decline much more rapidly,
while the share of natural gas would remain broadly stable. A
significant expansion of low-carbon electricity generation would
accompany deeper electrification across the economy. The company
estimates that this pathway would limit global warming to 1.8°C to
1.9°C by 2100.