BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 29. The IMF expects
Turkmenistan’s current account surplus to narrow to about 1.1% of
GDP in 2026.


This was stated in a concluding statement issued by an IMF
mission following a visit to Ashgabat.


"The current account surplus narrowed significantly, from 4.7
percent of GDP in 2024 to 1.7 percent in 2025," the statement
added.


The IMF attributed the trend to rising construction-related
imports, lower hydrocarbon prices, and limited capacity to fully
capitalize on export opportunities.


"The current account surplus is projected to narrow further as
construction-related imports rise and hydrocarbon exports benefit
only partially from higher oil prices because of limited capacity,"
the statement said.


On fiscal developments, the IMF said the central government
balance moved into a small surplus in 2025.


However, the Fund expects fiscal conditions to weaken over the
medium term due to declining hydrocarbon revenues.


"Over the medium term the external position is expected to
deteriorate, as hydrocarbon prices decline," the statement
added.







The IMF also recommended reorienting fiscal policy toward
higher-quality public spending, including health, education,
infrastructure, and improved public investment management,
alongside gradual subsidy reform and productivity-aligned wage
policy.


In order to address these issues, the IMF recommends that
Turkmenistan reorient fiscal policy toward expanding investment in
human and physical capital, improving public financial management,
reforming state-owned enterprises, gradually reducing generalized
subsidies, and shifting away from directed lending toward
market-based credit allocation, while strengthening the central
bank’s focus on price and financial stability.


Given this scenario, Turkmenistan’s 2026 socio-economic and
investment policy framework can be viewed in the context of growing
external uncertainty and anticipated price volatility highlighted
in the IMF’s latest assessment. The Fund points to the need to
strengthen public financial management, including broader fiscal
reporting, medium-term budgeting, and reform of state-owned
enterprises, as well as reducing directed lending by the Central
Bank.


Notably, these very directions are already embedded in
Turkmenistan’s previously adopted medium-term development and
investment programs, suggesting that policy planning has been
structured in anticipation of potential macroeconomic pressures
rather than as a reactive response. In this sense, the national
strategy reflects an attempt to pre-emptively address the same
vulnerabilities identified by the IMF, particularly in relation to
fiscal transparency, diversification of the economic base, and
modernization of financial governance mechanisms.


Against this backdrop, the current policy architecture can be
interpreted as an effort to internalize anticipated sources of
economic turbulence and align state planning with long-term
stability objectives, where investment expansion and institutional
modernization are positioned as core instruments for mitigating
structural risks outlined in the IMF outlook.


Meanwhile, in an exclusive interview with Trend, Anna Bordon said that, the IMF will
continue close cooperation with Turkmenistan in 2026, focusing on
maintaining macroeconomic stability and supporting structural
reforms with targeted technical assistance and capacity
development.


"Key priorities include supporting medium-term and program-based
budgeting, strengthening fiscal reporting and planning, and
enhancing governance and statistical capacity. These efforts aim to
help translate hydrocarbon wealth into more diversified, resilient,
and inclusive economic growth over the medium term," Bordon
added.