ING forecasts Azerbaijan's international reserves to rise 37% in 2026

BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 22. Azerbaijan’s
gross international reserves are projected to increase from $13.6
billion in 2025 to $18.6 billion in 2026, according to the latest
report by Netherlands-based ING Group.

This would represent a 36.8% year-on-year increase. The reserves
are then forecast to decline to $17.6 billion in 2027 and $15.6
billion in 2028.

The table below shows the dynamics of Azerbaijan’s gross
international reserves over the past decade.

“As on the fiscal side, higher oil prices have materially
improved the external outlook, reversing much of the deterioration
seen in 2025. As each US$10/bbl of oil price adds annual exports of
around 4% of GDP, in 2026F the current account surplus may exceed
10% of GDP. In the meantime, sovereign assets equivalent to 115% of
GDP keep growing and continue to provide substantial protection
against potential external shocks. These buffers remain the main
support for the AZN peg and broader macro stability. Over the
longer term, however, declining hydrocarbon production and limited
export diversification risk is likely to gradually erode the
external surplus. Azerbaijan remains one of the region’s strongest
external stories, although commodity dependence continues to shape
its medium term outlook,” said the ING.