BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 19. Global demand for
natural gas will peak around 2035 at 190 exajoules (EJ), after
which it will begin to decline.


According to the report by the international expert organization
DNV, “Energy Transition Outlook 2026,” the previous DNV forecast
had projected that demand would peak at 197 EJ in 2040.


“The geopolitical upheavals of 2026 led to a revision of the
forecast for global gas demand. Concerns about energy security are
accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources and nuclear
power in many importing countries.


Despite reaching its peak earlier than previously projected,
natural gas will continue to play a significant role in the global
energy mix throughout the forecast period. By 2060, global demand
for natural gas will decline by only about one-fifth.


Over the past decade, natural gas has accounted for about 27% of
global primary energy supply. By the mid-2030s, its share will
increase slightly, reaching about 28%, after which it will decline
to about 25% by mid-century and to just over 20% by 2060.


At the same time, long-term demand for natural gas is expected
to be higher than projected in DNV’s 2025 forecast. Specifically,
in 2050 it will amount to about 175 EJ, compared to 164 EJ in the
previous forecast, and in 2060 – about 140 EJ, compared to 130 EJ,"
DNV reports.


As noted in the report, this is because natural gas will replace
more oil and coal than previously anticipated: “At the same time,
the slower pace of development in the hydrogen energy sector will
mean that the transition from natural gas to hydrogen will be less
extensive than expected a year ago.”







The forecast for hydrogen has also been revised downward. Among
the reasons, DNV cites persistently high production costs, limited
government support, and ongoing inefficiencies in hydrogen
production and trade.”


According to DNV’s forecast, demand for natural gas will grow in
most sectors between 2026 and 2035: “After 2035, it will begin to
decline in virtually all sectors, except for the manufacturing
industry and hydrogen production, where further growth is
expected.”


In addition, the report notes that factors contributing to the
decline in demand include the transition to other energy sources,
such as electricity and hydrogen, as well as improvements in energy
efficiency.


"North America, the Middle East, and Africa (MEA) will lead
natural gas production throughout the forecast period.


In 2026, North America will remain the world’s largest gas
producer, with output of approximately 1,615 billion cubic meters.
Production in the Middle East and Africa region will decline to
approximately 1,100 billion cubic meters. “The Middle East and
Africa region will once again become the largest producer of
natural gas by around 2035, which is five years later than
projected in the 2025 report,” the organization reports.