BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 17. Global energy
efficiency is expected to improve by 3% annually through 2030 under
current policies, according to the International Renewable Energy
Agency (IRENA).
The forecast is outlined in the World Energy Transitions Outlook
2026, published on IRENA’s website.
The report notes that the average annual rate of improvement in
global energy efficiency remained slightly below 2% over the past
three years. Achieving the global target of doubling the rate of
improvement by 2030 requires annual gains of around 4%.
Under IRENA’s Planned Energy Scenario (PES), energy efficiency
is projected to improve by only around 3% annually between 2026 and
2030. By contrast, IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario, which aims to limit
global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, requires annual improvements
of more than 4% over the remaining years to 2030 to make up for the
shortfall in previous years.
The report identifies electrification as one of the key drivers
of improved energy efficiency. Electric vehicles, heat pumps and
electric industrial technologies can replace fuel-burning processes
in which a significant share of energy is lost as heat.
“Developing renewable-based energy systems and expanding
electrification can provide greater mobility, comfort and
productivity while consuming less primary and final energy,” the
report states.
A reduction in primary energy consumption under a scenario
consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C does not
necessarily mean lower economic activity or fewer energy services.
To a large extent, it reflects improvements in the efficiency of
the energy system.
However, electrification alone will not be sufficient to achieve
the required targets. Other important measures include improving
building energy efficiency, setting standards for household
appliances, making industrial processes and transport systems more
efficient, managing demand and changing consumption patterns.
The report warns that if energy efficiency improvements do not
accelerate while electricity demand continues to grow,
significantly more renewable generation capacity, infrastructure
and investment will be needed to deliver the same level of energy
services.
According to IRENA, improving energy efficiency, expanding power
grids and ensuring flexibility in energy systems are becoming
essential to the pace of the energy transition.
“These areas should not be viewed as secondary additions to
renewable energy expansion, but as fundamental factors determining
whether the transition can be implemented rapidly, reliably and at
an affordable cost,” the report states.
