BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 16. Azerbaijan's
consolidated budget revenues are projected to reach 52.7 billion
manat ($31 billion) in 2030, 17.1% higher than the approved 2026
figure.


This was reflected in the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework
prepared by the country's Ministry of Finance for the next four
years.


According to the document, consolidated budget revenues are
projected at 47.6 billion manat ($28 billion) in 2027. This is 2.6
billion manat (approximately $1.5 billion), or 5.8%, higher than
the approved 2026 figure.


By the end of the medium-term period, consolidated budget
revenues are expected to reach 52.7 billion manat ($31 billion) in
2030, up 7.7 billion manat (approximately $4.5 billion) from the
2026 figure.


State budget revenues were calculated based on actual
performance indicators from previous years and the latest
macroeconomic forecasts for 2027–2030. GDP and non-oil and gas GDP
growth rates, the exchange rate, oil and gas production, oil
prices, and other factors were taken into account in preparing the
forecasts.


The revenue calculations were carried out in accordance with the
rules for forecasting state budget revenues, including non-oil and
oil revenues, approved by Decision No. 4 of the Cabinet of
Ministers of Azerbaijan dated January 10, 2020.







According to the document, an oil price of $65 per barrel was
assumed for the 2027–2030 period when forecasting oil and gas
revenues for the state budget. Projected oil and gas production
volumes and the expected return on the assets of the State Oil Fund
were also taken into account.


Economic growth in the non-oil and gas sector, efforts to reduce
the shadow economy, optimization of personal income tax revenues,
income legalization, the expansion of electronic governance, and
stronger tax controls are expected to create conditions for
increasing the share of the non-oil and gas sector in budget
revenues.


In 2030, non-oil and gas revenues are projected to account for
69.8% of total state budget revenues, an increase of 9.3 percentage
points compared with 2027. In absolute terms, these revenues are
expected to rise by 19.2% to 28.3 billion manat ($16.6
billion).


According to the Ministry of Finance's forecasts, the budget
resource envelope is projected to amount to 50.4 billion manat
($29.6 billion) in 2027 and 53.1 billion manat ($31.2 billion) by
the end of the medium-term period.


In determining the resource envelope, the ministry took into
account the upper limits set under the fiscal rule for the ratio of
the consolidated budget's non-oil base deficit to non-oil GDP and
the ratio of public debt to GDP by the end of 2029. It also
considered the amount of public debt that could be incurred within
those limits and the annual caps on transfers from the State Oil
Fund to the state budget.