BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 16. The Eurasian Fund
for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) has raised its forecast
for Kazakhstan’s GDP growth in 2027 to 5.0% from 4.6% in its summer
outlook.
"The revision reflects the expected oil production volumes kept
unchanged and the implementation of major investment and
infrastructure projects, as well as more expansionary fiscal
policies. Consumer demand, however, will remain relatively subdued
amid moderately tight monetary conditions, slower retail lending,
and weak growth in real household incomes," the EFSD said.
The fund said its 2026 growth forecast remained unchanged at
5.0%, reflecting the recovery of oil production at the Tengiz field
to full capacity in the second quarter, steady growth in
non-commodity sectors, and high investment activity in the
quasi-public sector.
According to the EFSD, fiscal policy is expected to provide
additional support to economic activity in the second half of 2026,
including through a planned targeted transfer of 1.5 trillion tenge
via the Infrastructure Development Fund.
Persistently high commodity prices amid a tense external
environment are also expected to support export revenues and
activity in the mining sector.
The fund expects Kazakhstan’s economic growth to approach its
potential rate of around 4.1%-4.2% in 2028-2029 as the effects of
expanded oil production fade and domestic demand normalizes. This
is expected to gradually close the positive output gap and ease
inflationary pressure.
The EFSD noted that Kazakhstan’s economic growth accelerated to
4.1% in the first half of 2026, compared with 3.0% in the first
quarter.
The improvement followed the fading impact of an emergency
production halt at the Tengiz field and supply disruptions along
the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) route earlier in the year.
Oil production returned to full capacity in the second quarter,
while manufacturing, construction and trade continued to grow
steadily.
High investment activity, including in the quasi-public sector,
continued to support economic growth, while consumer demand
remained subdued amid slower retail lending and weak growth in real
household incomes.
According to Trend’s calculations, the EFSD’s 2027 GDP growth
forecast is 0.4 percentage points higher than its summer
projection.
For comparison, the World Bank’s October Europe and Central Asia
Economic Update projects Kazakhstan’s economic growth at 4.6% in
2026, unchanged from its April forecast.
The bank raised its 2027 growth forecast to 4.2% from 3.9% in
April, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, according to Trend’s
calculations. For 2028, the World Bank projects Kazakhstan’s GDP
growth at 3.9%.
The EFSD’s projections are higher than the World Bank’s
forecasts for both 2026 and 2027, by 0.4 and 0.8 percentage points,
respectively.
