BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 19. Gold futures rose
above the $4,500-per-ounce mark in Uzbekistan for the first time in
two months, a development that could have broader implications for
a country whose economy is heavily dependent on gold.


This was reflected in the statement by the KAP DEPO.


December gold futures briefly reached $4,500.9 an ounce on Aug.
12, gaining 1.34%. By the morning of August 13, prices had eased to
around $4,450, but the metal remained near two-month highs.


The latest rally came after US inflation data showed core
consumer prices rose 0.2% month on month in July, while the annual
rate slowed to 2.5%, its lowest level since March 2021.


Softer inflation has strengthened expectations that the Federal
Reserve could begin cutting interest rates, improving the appeal of
gold, which does not generate interest income.


Gold has gained more than 8% since the beginning of August,
while continued purchases by central banks have provided additional
support for demand.


However, the metal remains below its record high of $5,626.8 an
ounce, reached in late January.


Trend's analysis
shows that the latest rally above $4,500 reflects a broader shift
in expectations for US monetary policy. Softer US inflation has
strengthened the case for lower interest rates, improving the
appeal of gold after the metal came under pressure earlier this
year from expectations of prolonged high borrowing costs.







Trend's calculations show that gold remains around 20% below its
January record of $5,626.8 an ounce, despite gaining more than 8%
since the beginning of August. The latest move therefore represents
a significant recovery, but not a full reversal of the correction
that followed the record high.


For Uzbekistan, movements in global gold prices have particular
significance because gold remains the country's largest export
commodity and accounts for the bulk of its international reserves.
Changes in bullion prices can therefore affect both export revenues
and the dollar value of the country's reserve assets.


Uzbekistan's exposure to the gold market extends beyond prices
themselves. The country's major gold producer, Navoi Mining and
Metallurgical Company (NMMC), produced 1.51 million troy ounces of gold in the first half of
2026, while continuing to invest in expanding mining and processing
capacity. This provides Uzbekistan with a substantial physical
production base, but also leaves the country's export earnings and
reserve valuations sensitive to changes in international gold
prices.


Recent Central Bank data illustrate this exposure. The value of
Uzbekistan's gold reserves declined by $156 million in May as gold
prices weakened, despite an increase in physical gold holdings.
This means that even when the country maintains or increases the
amount of gold it holds, changes in international prices can have
an immediate effect on the reported dollar value of its
reserves.


At the same time, continued purchases by global central banks
are providing structural support for bullion, potentially limiting
the downside from shifts in investor sentiment. Expectations of
lower US interest rates could provide an additional catalyst if
inflation continues to moderate.


In Trend's
assessment, the return of gold above $4,500 is particularly
important for Uzbekistan because higher bullion prices can support
both the value of its reserves and the dollar value of gold
exports. While NMMC's strong production and ongoing investment
provide a buffer against market volatility, the country's
substantial exposure to gold means that the trajectory of
international prices will remain an important factor for its
external-sector performance.