BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 13. The Kazakh tenge
has maintained relative stability despite pressure from disruptions
in oil export flows through the Caspian Sea, with financial flows
becoming an increasingly important factor for the currency outlook,
ING analysts said.
According to ING’s latest regional FX outlook, USD/KZT is
expected to move toward 475 in one month, 480 in three months and
485 in three, six and twelve months from the current level of
around 468.
The bank noted that the tenge has stabilized over the past four
weeks following its June strengthening, while the impact of higher
oil prices has been partly offset by disruptions affecting oil
export routes through the Caspian Sea. "News headlines may suggest
that the recent spike in oil prices seems to have been offset by
disruptions in oil export flows through the Caspian Sea," ING
analysts said.
According to ING, financial flows are now playing a more
significant role in determining the tenge’s direction. Continued
foreign portfolio inflows, supported by high real interest rates in
Kazakhstan, are providing support for the currency. At the same
time, reduced foreign exchange sales by the government are limiting
further appreciation potential.
The bank noted that total state-driven FX sales declined to $0.8
billion in July, reaching a multi-month low. ING said the trend is
consistent with a previously identified reduction in government FX
interventions, which should limit the scope for stronger tenge
appreciation over the longer term.
Kazakhstan’s financial authorities are also strengthening the
technological capacity of the financial system as market-based
factors gain greater importance. The Agency for Regulation and
Development of the Financial Market told Trend that it is using artificial intelligence
and machine learning technologies in supervisory activities to
improve risk assessments, accelerate analysis and automate data
processing.
The regulator launched the first version of its unified
supervisory platform FinAI in 2025 as part of its Digital
Transformation Strategy for 2025–2027. The platform includes more
than 20 supervisory tools, including 10 AI-powered services
covering licensing, prudential supervision, anti-money laundering
controls and financial institution monitoring.
According to the Agency, AI-based models are being used to
assess credit risks, forecast borrower defaults, conduct stress
testing and identify unusual banking transactions. The regulator
said these tools create a "digital supervisory memory" that
supports faster and more informed supervisory decisions.
Trend’s analysis
shows that the ING assessment highlights a structural shift in the
factors influencing Kazakhstan’s currency market. While oil prices
and export revenues remain important for the tenge, domestic
financial conditions, portfolio flows and institutional risk
management are becoming increasingly influential. The expansion of
AI-based supervisory tools indicates that Kazakhstan’s financial
authorities are preparing for a more complex financial environment,
where capital movements, credit quality and liquidity risks require
faster monitoring. This is particularly relevant as foreign
portfolio inflows supported by high real rates become a larger
component of currency dynamics. Kazakhstan’s high real interest
rates continue to support demand for local assets, attracting
portfolio inflows and providing additional support for the tenge.
However, the reduction in state FX sales means that one of the
traditional sources of currency support is gradually becoming less
significant.
