BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 13. Tajikistan
increased wheat imports in the first half of 2026 as domestic
production declined, with Kazakhstan remaining the country's sole
supplier of imported wheat.


The figures were released by Tajikistan's Antimonopoly
Service.


According to the agency, Tajikistan imported 660,800 metric tons
of wheat worth approximately $171 million in January–June 2026,
representing a 7.7% increase compared with the same period last
year.


All imported wheat originated from Kazakhstan, while the average
import price rose to $259 per metric ton, up $25 from a year
earlier.


Meanwhile, domestic wheat production fell 13.3% year on year to
510,000 metric tons during the reporting period.


The country also increased flour imports by 45.2% to 35,400
metric tons. Kazakhstan accounted for about 95% of total flour
imports.







Despite the higher level of imports, domestic flour production
expanded 31.6% year on year to 399,400 metric tons.


According to local experts, the increase in grain and flour
imports reflects rising domestic demand driven by population
growth. Official statistics show that Tajikistan's population
increased by nearly 64% between 2000 and 2024.


Trend's analysis
shows that Tajikistan's dependence on imported wheat continued to
deepen in the first half of 2026 as domestic production declined
faster than import volumes increased. The 13.3% drop in wheat
harvests, coupled with a 7.7% rise in imports, underscores the
country's growing reliance on external supplies to meet domestic
demand.


Trend's
calculations show that imported wheat exceeded domestic production
by approximately 150,800 metric tons, with imports accounting for
about 56% of the combined volume of imported and domestically
produced wheat during the reporting period. Kazakhstan also
reinforced its position as Tajikistan's dominant grain supplier,
providing 100% of wheat imports and around 95% of flour
imports.


In Trend's
assessment, the simultaneous increase in flour production and
imports suggests that domestic milling capacity continues to
expand, but not sufficiently to offset lower wheat harvests. With
population growth continuing to drive food demand, Tajikistan is
likely to remain heavily dependent on grain imports unless domestic
agricultural productivity improves.