BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 3. Uzbekistan could
see a $93 billion increase in trade value by 2040 as the
Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor (TCTC) expands, with imports
projected to account for $78 billion of the increase and exports
for another $15 billion.


This was reflected in the World Bank’s Integration: World-Class
Trade Logistics Along the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor
publication.


The World Bank expects trade across TCTC host countries to grow
by 1.5 times in value and 60% in volume between 2023 and 2040,
although the impact is expected to differ significantly across
economies.


For Uzbekistan, the baseline forecast indicates that the
corridor could generate a substantially larger increase in import
trade value than export trade value. The report’s estimates point
to a $15 billion increase in exports and a $78 billion increase in
imports by 2040 compared with the 2023 baseline.+


The World Bank said the projected trade expansion reflects
stronger connectivity and changing trade patterns along the
corridor. At the same time, structural constraints, including
elevated trade costs, limited infrastructure and logistical
fragmentation, could restrict the pace of diversification toward
higher-value goods.







Across TCTC economies, trade growth is expected to remain
concentrated in hydrocarbons, metals and other bulk commodities,
while higher-value products such as machinery, electronics and
processed goods are projected to expand from a relatively low
base.


For Uzbekistan, improved connectivity could provide greater
access to regional and international markets while supporting trade
flows through the Caspian Sea and South Caucasus toward Türkiye and
Europe. The report also highlights the importance of improving
corridor performance to support broader trade diversification.


According to Trend’s calculations, the projected $93 billion
combined increase in Uzbekistan’s export and import trade value
consists of approximately 16.1% from exports and 83.9% from
imports. The projected increase in import value is about 5.2 times
larger than the increase in export value, while the combined
increase represents $5.5 billion per year over the 17 years if
spread evenly for illustration. These figures represent the change
in trade value under the World Bank’s baseline forecast, rather
than Uzbekistan’s total trade value in 2040.