BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 29. Moody’s Ratings
expects non-oil sectors to remain the main drivers of Kazakhstan’s
economic growth, the agency said in its rationale for affirming
Kazakhstan’s Baa1 rating.


“We expect non-oil sectors to remain the main drivers of growth,
while recovering oil production will support overall expansion.
Sustained investments in transport, energy and digital
infrastructure will broaden economic opportunities,” Moody’s
said.


The agency noted that prospects for productivity gains remain
uncertain and will depend on project execution, broader private
sector involvement and sustained institutional improvements.


According to Moody’s, Kazakhstan’s economic profile is supported
by robust medium-term growth prospects, continued diversification
away from hydrocarbons and movement up the value chain.


"Real GDP grew 4.1% in the first eight months of 2026 even
though the mining and quarrying sector contracted 4.3%, as non-oil
growth of 5.3% more than offset weaker oil and gas production.
Manufacturing, construction, transportation and trade continued to
expand, supported by infrastructure investment and domestic
demand", Moody's said.







The agency also noted that constitutional, electoral and
judicial changes have expanded access to legal remedies,
strengthened the Constitutional Court and Ombudsman, and increased
transparency in judicial appointments and administrative
proceedings.


Anti-corruption measures have broadened asset-declaration and
conflict-of-interest requirements and expanded digital oversight.
The new constitutional succession framework also reduces
uncertainty surrounding an unexpected leadership transition.


At the same time, the agency pointed out that Kazakhstan remains
exposed to geopolitical risks because the Caspian Pipeline
Consortium pipeline carries most of its oil exports through Russian
territory. Attacks and operational disruptions temporarily reduced
exports and production over 2025-26, although volumes recovered
quickly and the effect on credit fundamentals has been limited.


Moody’s affirmed the Government of Kazakhstan’s local and
foreign currency long-term issuer ratings at Baa1, with a stable
outlook. The agency also affirmed the foreign currency senior
unsecured debt and MTN programme ratings at Baa1 and (P)Baa1,
respectively.