BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 27. Tajikistan’s
exports increased by 57.2 percent year on year in the first half of
2026, driven by rising shipments of precious metals and minerals,
the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said in
its September Regional Economic Prospects report.
At the same time, imports increased by 38.6% year on year,
resulting in a widening trade deficit.
The EBRD said the increase in exports reflected higher shipments
of precious metals and minerals, while the expansion of imports
came amid continued economic activity and domestic demand.
The bank projects Tajikistan’s economic growth at 7.9% in 2026
and 7% in 2027.
Trend’s analysis
indicates that the Tajikistan’s exports could maintain annual
growth of around 10–15% in 2027–2029, supported by mineral
production, precious metals and the gradual expansion of industrial
output. If this pace is maintained, the country’s total exports
could increase by approximately 35–45% by 2029 compared with
2026.
Further growth in processing industries and mineral production
could also gradually diversify the export structure, creating
additional opportunities for Tajikistan to expand its presence in
regional markets.
Tajikistan has continued to expand industrial production and
investment in sectors with export potential, including mining,
metals, energy and manufacturing. Higher production capacity in
these areas could support further growth in the country’s external
trade and strengthen the contribution of industrial products to
overall exports.
The development of processing facilities could also allow
Tajikistan to increase the value added generated from its natural
resources, while improvements in transport and regional
connectivity may facilitate access to neighboring markets.
