BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 23. New U.S.
tariffs will have a limited direct impact on Kazakhstan.
This was announced in the latest outlook published by the Asian
Development Bank (ADB).
“New US tariffs will have a limited direct impact, as uranium
and other commodities, Kazakhstan’s key exports to the United
States, are exempt”, the ADB said.
The bank’s analysts noted that consumption growth in Kazakhstan
is projected at 5.0% in 2026, slightly above the July baseline,
strengthening further in 2027 due to higher public consumption.
Further tightening of consumer lending rules is expected to
constrain private consumption.
Investment growth is projected at 8.0% in 2026 before moderating
in 2027, supported by state infrastructure projects and financing
from Baiterek National Investment Holding and Samruk-Kazyna.
“By mid-2026, Baiterek had provided around $6.2 billion of its
planned annual $16.4 billion in lending, while Samruk-Kazyna had
planned $10.9 billion in investment expenditure. Net exports of
goods and services will decline in both years as imports of
intermediate and investment goods continue to grow while exports
remain exposed to oil-sector disruptions”, the ADB said.
In the outlook, ADB maintained Kazakhstan’s GDP growth forecast
at 4.8% for 2026 and 4.5% for 2027.
“Growth moderated in the first half of 2026, with expansion
outside hydrocarbons partly cushioning weaker oil output. Inflation
remained in double digits. Public investment and off-budget
financing will continue to support growth in 2026 and 2027.
Inflation is projected to slow gradually amid utility and fuel
price adjustments and external pressures”, ADB said.
The United States introduced new tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on
imports from 60 countries worldwide on July 24, 2026.
