BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 22. Uzbekistan is
emerging as one of Central Asia's key examples of efforts to combat
land degradation and restore ecosystems, but growing water
shortages and climate pressures could complicate the country's
progress.
This was reflected in the United Nations Convention to Combat
Desertification's (UNCCD)
regional thematic report titled Central Asia: Region of Ancient Traditions and
Modern Perspectives.
The report highlights Uzbekistan's environmental initiatives
alongside broader challenges facing the region, including land
degradation, shrinking water resources, soil salinization and
growing pressure on the Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins.
Uzbekistan has planted saxaul across 2 million hectares of the
dried Aral Sea bed, helping stabilize the exposed seabed and reduce
dust and sand movement. According to the report, actual dust
retention from these efforts reached 35%-40%, significantly above
the initial forecast of 15%-18%.
The country's "Yashil Makon" initiative is also targeting the
planting of around 200 million seedlings annually, while the
government aims to increase urban green coverage from 8% to 30% by
2030. Uzbekistan has also expanded water-saving agriculture, with
drip irrigation covering about 1 million hectares.
Trend's analysis
shows that Uzbekistan's environmental policy is increasingly moving
from individual restoration projects toward a broader
land-management strategy that combines reforestation, water
conservation, legislation and community participation. The
country's national land-degradation neutrality targets, approved in
2023, include restoring degraded land, expanding forest cover and
introducing water-saving technologies.
The report notes that forested areas across Central Asia
increased by 6.4% during the period assessed, with Uzbekistan
recording one of the strongest increases at 39%. Tajikistan
followed with a 23% increase.
Trend's calculations show that Uzbekistan's reported increase in
forested areas was more than six times the regional average,
underscoring the scale of the country's reforestation efforts.
However, these gains are occurring alongside a significant
deterioration in regional water resources. The area covered by
water bodies across Central Asia declined by 18.5%, while the
decline in Uzbekistan was approaching 50%, according to the report.
This creates a particular challenge because newly planted trees in
arid areas require irrigation during their first several years of
growth.
Water availability could become the main constraint on
Uzbekistan's environmental restoration efforts. The country is
located downstream in the region's major river systems and depends
heavily on water flows originating in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan,
while much of its agricultural land is concentrated in
water-intensive irrigated areas. The economic dimension further
highlights Uzbekistan's dependence on regional connectivity.
According to macroeconomic data presented in the report,
Uzbekistan's 2023 exports totaled $24.3 billion, while imports
reached $38.1 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of about $13.7
billion. The country's GDP stood at approximately $102 billion.
At the same time, Uzbekistan maintained substantial trade links
with its Central Asian neighbors. The data show that Uzbekistan
exported about $4.4 billion worth of goods to Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan in 2023. In the opposite
direction, Uzbekistan imported approximately $2.8 billion from
those four countries. Central Asian neighbors accounted for roughly
18.2% of Uzbekistan's total exports and about 7.3% of its total
imports in 2023. Uzbekistan therefore recorded an estimated $1.6
billion trade surplus with the other four Central Asian economies,
despite running a much larger overall trade deficit. Kazakhstan was
the largest regional market for Uzbek goods, with imports from
Uzbekistan reaching about $3.04 billion. Turkmenistan followed at
approximately $950 million, while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
imported around $284 million and $142 million, respectively.
These trade links reinforce the importance of regional
cooperation on environmental and water issues. Uzbekistan's
economic relationships with its neighbors are already substantial,
while the country's agriculture, energy security and ecological
restoration remain closely connected to transboundary resources.
The report identifies a structural conflict between upstream energy
needs and downstream irrigation demand. Reservoirs in Kyrgyzstan
and Tajikistan are increasingly operated to generate electricity
during winter, while Uzbekistan and other downstream countries
require greater water availability during the summer agricultural
season.
This creates what the report describes as a regional "water
compromise" problem: upstream countries need water for energy
generation, while downstream economies depend on predictable summer
flows for irrigation.
Uzbekistan also faces a persistent soil-salinization problem.
Secondary salinization is particularly acute in the lower reaches
of the Amu Darya, including Karakalpakstan and Khorezm, where
irrigated agriculture has historically placed substantial pressure
on soil and water resources. Climate change adds another layer of
risk. Glacial coverage in the Aral Sea basin has declined by around
30% over the past 50 years, according to the report. Accelerated
melting could temporarily increase river flows, but the resulting
decline in glacier reserves could eventually reduce the region's
long-term water supply.
In Trend's assessment, Uzbekistan's experience demonstrates both
the potential and limits of environmental restoration in an
increasingly water-stressed region. The country's large-scale
saxaul planting, expansion of water-saving irrigation and growth in
forested areas show that meaningful ecological recovery is
possible. However, Uzbekistan's position as a major downstream
economy means that sustaining those gains will increasingly depend
on regional water cooperation as well as economic interdependence.
Its substantial trade with neighboring countries provides an
existing foundation for deeper regional coordination, while the
growing pressure on shared water resources makes cooperation
increasingly important for both environmental and economic
stability.
For Uzbekistan, the environmental challenge is therefore not
limited to restoring degraded land. Ensuring reliable access to
water, reducing pressure on irrigated agriculture and coordinating
water and energy policies across Central Asia will be critical to
determining whether the country's restoration gains can be
sustained through 2030 and beyond.
