BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 5. A panel discussion at
an event entitled "The Caspian Sea at a turning point: scientific
and analytical discussion on sea level fall and regional action"
has been held as part of the international conference dedicated to
World Environment Day (WED), Trend reports.
During the panel discussion, Elena Ostrovskaya, a researcher at
the Russian Hydrometeorological Research Center, said that the
change in the level of the Caspian Sea is a natural process.
"Climate studies show that the decrease in the water level in
the Caspian Sea may continue in the coming years. The change in the
level of the Caspian Sea is a natural process, and this has
happened many times throughout history. Both increases and
decreases in the water level have been observed at different times.
Measurements taken at the stations show that decreases and
increases in the water level have been recorded over the past 200
years," she noted.
Rovshan Abbasov, a climate expert working in Azerbaijan, said
that the Caspian Sea is generally a water basin without a flow, but
its main water sources are rivers flowing into the basin.
According to him, most of the water comes mainly from the Volga
and Ural rivers. The Volga River accounts for about 80% of the
total water entering the Caspian Sea.
"The level of the Caspian Sea is falling because it depends on
river flows. As the flow of rivers changes, the level of the sea
also changes. I remember 1995. Over the past 100 years, the sea
level has fluctuated significantly.
In 1995, the level of the Caspian Sea reached its highest point.
This disrupted normal life along the approximately 800-kilometer
coastal areas of Azerbaijan. Prolonged floods occurred, and the
main infrastructure along the coast was flooded. Even some parts of
the Baku Boulevard were damaged by floods.
However, after 1995, a decrease in sea level has been observed.
This decrease is associated with various factors occurring in the
Caspian basin. The main reason is the decrease in water coming from
the rivers. So why is the river flow decreasing? The main reasons
for this are the increase in temperature and the decrease in
precipitation. In addition, the demand for water is also
increasing. As is known, most of the water entering the Caspian
comes from the territory of Russia, in particular from the Volga
River.
The total area of water reservoirs in Russia reaches 30
thousand square kilometers. This means more evaporation and water
losses. Measures must be taken in this regard.
At the same time, the effects of climate change are intensifying
and the volume of irrigated land is increasing both in Russia and
in other countries, including Azerbaijan. This creates additional
pressure on water resources.
The main conclusion is that it is necessary to organize water
use in the Caspian basin in a more efficient and economical way.
This issue is of particular importance, "he said.
Simon Goodman from the University of Leeds noted that a drop in
the level of the Caspian Sea could have potentially catastrophic
consequences.
He said that even in the most optimistic scenario, if sea levels
fall by 5–8 meters, this could lead to huge losses in important
habitats and ecologically important areas.
"In the event of a 5-meter drop in sea level, 7 of the 15
existing ecologically and biologically important areas could lose
more than 50 percent of their area, and 4 of them could disappear
completely. If the sea level drops by 10 meters, five such areas
would disappear completely, and four unique ecoregions in the
northern Caspian would also face the threat of extinction."
He also noted that the consequences for sturgeons, the main
species of the Caspian, would be serious.
"A 5-meter drop in sea level could lead to the loss of
approximately 57–81 percent of the Caspian seal's existing breeding
grounds. At the same time, the distribution range of sturgeons will
be significantly narrowed and their access to river systems will be
severely limited. This indicates potentially catastrophic
consequences for the critical biodiversity of the Caspian Sea. As a
result, human well-being and economic activity depend on ecosystem
services. Therefore, it is extremely important to consider ways to
prevent possible biodiversity losses," he noted.
Elnur Safarov, an expert on Caspian Sea research at IDEA Public
Union, said in his speech that the coverage of meteorological
stations is very limited.
According to him, this information is not enough to fully
understand the changes taking place in the Caspian Sea.
"Relevant legislation exists, and different approaches are
applied by both Russia and Azerbaijan. Sometimes there are
disagreements between these approaches. In addition, there are
satellite observations, and in order to obtain more accurate
results, it is important to integrate data from various sources.
There is a need for certain updates in data systems. It is
necessary to create a new platform in a semi-institutional,
semi-scientific format so that integrated and more accurate data
can be obtained. For this purpose, we, as the IDEA Public Union,
have created a council that brings together Caspian Sea
researchers. However, support at the state level is necessary for
this to be implemented on a larger scale.
It's important to create a single model that combines station
data, reanalysis data and citizen observations. The more accurate
the data, the more reliable the forecasts will be. The average
depth in the northern part of the Caspian is only a few meters.
Even a decrease of about 25 cm can lead to serious ecological
consequences. If precipitation continues until the end of the year,
stabilization in the level of the Caspian Sea may be observed," he
noted.
Robb Butler, the World Health Organization's special
representative for climate and health, noted in his speech that the
state of the Caspian Sea directly affects the condition of all
people and living creatures living around it.
"Currently, we do not have systematically collected and assessed
data on the impact of sea level decline, both water volume and
water quality changes, on human health. That is why we have started
discussions with IDEA Public Union in Azerbaijan and the Ministry
of Health of Azerbaijan, as well as with the Minister of Health
Teymur Musayev, on a systematic assessment of the impacts on the
environment and human health.
He said that the fact that countries do not have all the
information at their disposal does not mean that they cannot have
serious discussions at the scientific and political level.
"Because we have the best or perhaps the worst example in front
of us - the Aral Sea. Once the fourth largest inland water basin in
the world, the Aral Sea covered an area of about 68 thousand
square kilometers. Today, most of it has turned into a desert
covered with toxic dust. This is an example that clearly shows what
the worst-case scenario could look like," he added.
Natalia Tretyakova, Head of the Department of International
Cooperation and Climate Change of the Ministry of Natural Resources
and Environment of Russia, noted in her speech that Russia takes
the issue of changing the level of the Caspian Sea seriously.
She said that she has been engaged in the protection of the
Caspian Sea for about 30 years.
"During this time, various mechanisms and cooperation platforms
have been formed. We all agree that the Caspian is a unique water
basin. One of its main features is the variability of its water
level, which is also reflected in legal documents. We believe that
this sea belongs to all of us and consultations on issues should be
held in a fair and transparent format. The more comprehensive the
exchange of information, the more accurate the assessments will be.
Based on reliable information, adaptive measures can be taken, and
activities carried out during extreme water level changes will be
more effective.
At the meeting in Turkmenistan, we proposed the creation of a
Working Group on Climate. We consider it important to have more
complete climate measurements and data in the database.
In addition to bilateral agreements, there is also activity in
various areas - hydrometeorological monitoring, protection of
living marine resources, and scientific cooperation. Russia
attaches particular importance to the issue of water level changes
in the Caspian. A project is currently being implemented to
investigate the causes of the water level change," he said.
Meanwhile, Rafiq Verdiyev, head of the Department of the State
Supervision Service for Water Use and Protection under the
Azerbaijan Water Resources Agency, said that according to the
analysis, there was a temperature increase last year.
"Increasing temperature, evaporation and a decrease in river
flows naturally lead to a decrease in the level of the Caspian Sea.
The situation is not good. In Azerbaijan, for example, in our
coastal zone, we see ecological problems, biodiversity problems, as
well as industrial problems. For example, ships cannot approach the
coast, coastal areas, and this creates certain difficulties. A drop
in sea level by several meters can lead to an even more complicated
situation. The situation is that we are under the influence. We are
affected by climate change, we are affected by the decrease in sea
level," he noted.
